Two important but unrelated political events dominating headlines this week may have long-lasting impact on India — coronation of Rahul Gandhi as Congress president and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election victory in Gujarat. While it is tempting to get swayed by the dominant sentiments, a close reading of the two events is necessary to understand how they will influence governance, economy and social discourse in the coming months and years.
Modi’s expected victory on Monday in Gujarat has solidified mainstream opinion about his popularity and added momentum to his Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) goal of complete political dominance. By retaining Gujarat for the sixth time and wresting the mountainous province of Himachal Pradesh from Congress, the BJP now controls 19 out of the 29 states in India — a first in 24 years when Congress ruled 16. The BJP now enjoys a position that was occupied by Congress in 1993, a remarkable feat for the right-wing nationalist party formed in 1980.
These victories are widely seen as yet another vindication of Modi’s popularity and a step closer to his oft-repeated dream of a ‘Congress-Mukt Bharat’ (an India without Congress). The BJP supporters say Gujarat and Himachal elections also show that Modi remains the tallest leader and are confident he will deliver another stunning victory in the 2019 general elections.
Election victories can be misleading and sometimes mask an undercurrent of disillusionment among large sections of the society. A closer scrutiny of these results shows signs that should worry Modi. Gujarat, Modi’s home state and the launch-pad of his career in 2001, is also a ‘Hindutva laboratory’ where he perfected the art of deploying religious nationalism in every election he won since 2002. In this election too, the BJP relied on the tested formula — a potent mix of Modi’s charisma and religious nationalism. Yet, results indicate a limited success this time. In a house of 182 legislators, the BJP won just 99 seats against 81 by Congress. Moreover, the victory margin in 25 seats won by the BJP was less than five per cent. But the most worrying factor is Congress’ victory in 71 out of 127 rural seats, an indication that Modi’s popularity is now mostly limited to urban pockets.
His failure to win votes in rural areas indicate widespread disillusionment among the farmers in Gujarat, a mood consistent with the sentiments prevailing in other parts of rural India. In recent months, tens of thousands of farmers have held protests in several cities, including capital New Delhi, to protest Modi’s farm sector policies. Nothing illustrates this better than Modi’s hometown of Vadnagar where the BJP lost the seat of Unjha, Asia’s largest cumin seeds market. Similarly, it lost all the four seats in the Narmada district where Modi is raising a 182-metre statue of nationalist icon Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel.
In urban areas, however, discontent simmering due to Modi’s economic mismanagement and botched reforms is hidden in the election data. In a shift from 2014, when young voters solidly rallied behind Modi’s promise of ‘Achche Din’ or good days, youths voted for Congress this time. Youngsters are restless because of his miserable failure to generate employment. The trading class, the BJP’s core support base, stayed with the BJP despite their anger on hasty implementation of tax reforms and the currency ban.
The BJP’s victory in Himachal Pradesh was widely expected as the picturesque state alternates between two parties. This time, however, Congress lost after a gap of ten years, a defeat attributed to corruption charges against the chief minister. Interestingly, the BJP’s victory here too was not a landslide and Congress managed to retain 21 seats against the BJP’s 44. Last month, the BJP had bagged just 900 odd wards out of 5,260 in municipal elections in Uttar Pradesh, the state where Modi delivered a landslide in March, indicating a gradual decline in his popularity.
Just two days before the results were declared on Monday, Congress settled the complex issue of succession by anointing Rahul as the party president, a position he inherited from mother Sonia Gandhi who took over the party in 1998. The 47-year-old leader now faces the challenge of rebuilding Congress in states where it is out of power for years. He has to now offer an alternative to Modi at a time when the Congress coffers are empty and cadres are non-existent in several states. The help may come from unexpected quarters as seen during Gujarat elections where restless youngsters drew towards Congress. Rahul’s challenge is to build on this support and amplify growing criticism of Modi’s economic policies and governance.
Modi also faces a unique set of challenges and may need to alter his style of governance in addition to tweaking his economic policies. Gujarat results showed his charisma has limited appeal now and may not guarantee success in states going to polls next year. Secondly, the BJP’s overdependence on Modi to win elections is an organisational weakness that is hard to ignore. At the moment, he is the only campaigner who can use a toxic mix of development and aggressive nationalism to decimate a rival. In the long run, however, the BJP will face another challenge. Unlike Congress, there is no succession plan in the BJP. While Modi is a powerful one-man army, he is not an institution builder.
