United States Vice-President Joe Biden will make a speech in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Labour Day tomorrow, fuelling recent speculation that he is contemplating entering the 2016 White House race. His potential jump into the contest, given the fall-off in polling numbers of Hillary Clinton, has the potential to energise the Democratic competition in a way no other candidate, except perhaps Senator Elizabeth Warren, could do.
The signals that Biden may run are growing and range from his meeting on August 27 with AFL-CIO labour organisation president Richard Trumka; his recent comments to Democratic National Committee members that he is deciding whether he has the “emotional fuel” for a White House run; and his two-hour meeting on August 22 with Senator Elizabeth Warren, a darling of the liberal wing of the party.
If the vice-president is to enter into the race, he will probably need to make a decision this month or early next month. This is because October 13 is the time for the first television debate for Democrat candidates in Las Vegas. Biden has the experience and appeal to make a very strong candidate, after standing previously in 1988 and 2008. In part, this is because of the respect he has garnered as vice-president. As with some recent holders of that office, notably Al Gore and Dick Cheney, Biden has assumed a significant vice-presidential role on both domestic and foreign policy.
This reflects both Biden’s high standing with President Barack Obama. And also the fact that the office of the vice-president has assumed more power in US administrations in recent years with larger staff budgets, greater proximity to the centre of power through a West Wing office in the White House, weekly one-on-one meetings with the president and authority to attend all presidential meetings.
Hot favourite as Hillary remains, the fact that Biden should not be dismissed as a contender for the Democratic presidential crown is underlined by latest polling numbers, released on Thursday from a Quinnipiac University national survey, which show Biden currently performing better than Hillary in election head-to-heads against top Republican candidates. The vice-president also has the highest favourability rating among any 2016 candidates from either major party according to the survey.
Part of the speculation surrounding Biden’s candidacy is the possibility, mooted in the media, of a Biden-Warren presidential ticket. That would potentially electrify the Democratic base, given the appeal to the Democratic base of Warren, who says she has ruled out a White House run in 2016 herself.
Biden also has the weight of history behind him if he makes a third White House run. That is, the vice-presidency has become perhaps the single most common pathway to trying to assume office of the presidency in the post-war era.
Major obstacles
Since 1960, four US vice-presidents — Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Al Gore in 2000 — won their respective party’s presidential nomination, but then lost the general election, while two vice-presidents (Nixon in 1968 and George H.W. Bush in 1988) were elected president. Moreover, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford became president after an assassination and a resignation, respectively.
One reason US vice-presidents enjoy such success in securing their party’s presidential nomination relates to the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution. This amendment, ratified in 1951, restricts presidents from serving more than two four-year terms. Importantly for vice-presidents, this allows for the possibility of organising a presidential campaign in the sitting president’s second term without charges — from inside or outside the party — of disloyalty.
Despite his significant strengths as a candidate, Biden would face major obstacles in seeking to derail Hillary’s campaign, which still leads, according to Thursday’s Quinnipiac poll, the Democratic race. According to the survey, she has 45 per cent support from registered Democrats, with Vermont Senator Bernie Saunders on 22 per cent and the still undeclared Biden on 18 per cent.
Other hurdles include that Biden and Hillary occupy the same centrist position on the political spectrum and both have enjoyed long Washington political careers at a time when there is a significant ‘anti-politics’ culture. Both are also broadly of the same generation: While Hillary is 67, the slightly older Biden would, by inauguration day in 2016, be the oldest president ever at 74.
While Hillary’s numbers have dipped in 2015, she has a formidable national campaign apparatus in place already. Plus a very significant financial donor base as shown by the fact that she raised a record $47 million (Dh172.86 million) during the first quarter of 2015, notwithstanding the other money raised to help her by super PACs and independent allies.
Nonetheless, significant concerns remain in particular about her handling of the recent controversies over her personal email use when she was US secretary of state between 2009 and 2013. And this has dented her polling and favourability numbers.
Biden and his team recognise this presents a potential opening to enter the field and even should the vice-president not win the Democratic crown, his presence would shake up the contest that has far fewer contenders than the Republican field. Indeed, the latter contest is the most competitive for at least a generation with a massive field of contenders. While businessman Donald Trump has seized an early lead, there are perhaps over half a dozen others who could yet prevail, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, the brother and son of former presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush, respectively; Dr Ben Carson; the Governors of New Jersey and Wisconsin, Chris Christie and Scott Walker; and Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. These and others are forming what is proving to be an exceptionally large field for what could prove to be a very fluid Republican race over the next 12 months.
Partial exceptions
The past few decades indicate that the victor in nomination contests for both major parties, Democrats and Republicans, usually leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first ‘election year’ presidential nomination ballot, traditionally in Iowa, and also raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months prior to election year.
From 1980 to 2012, the eventual nominee in eight of the 14 Democratic and Republican nomination races that were contested (in other words, in which there was more than one candidate) was the early frontrunner on both measures. This was true of George W. Bush and Gore in 2000; Bob Dole, the Republican candidate in 1996; Bill Clinton in 1992; George H.W. Bush in 1988 and 1992; Walter Mondale, the Democratic nominee in 1984; and Jimmy Carter, the Democratic candidate in 1980.
Moreover, in at least three partial exceptions to this pattern, the eventual presidential nominee led the rest of the field on one of the two measures. This was true of Mitt Romney in 2012, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Ronald Reagan in 1980.
In the race for the 2012 Republican nomination, Romney was the leading fundraiser, but sometimes trailed or was tied in national polls of party identifiers to Newt Gingrich immediately prior to the Iowa ballot. In the 1980 Republican nomination contest, Reagan (who ultimately won) led national polls of party identifiers while John Connally was the leading fundraiser.
On both the fundraising and national poll measures, Hillary could yet remain the strong favourite for the Democrats in the coming months. However, as Obama (who trailed Hillary on both of these measures in the 2008 election cycle) showed, she is by no means unbeatable.
Taken overall, Biden’s candidacy could transform the Democratic race, even if Hillary ultimately prevails. The vice-president would prove a formidable candidate and has the outside potential to beat the former secretary of state, especially if her poll numbers continue to soften in the second half of this year.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics and a former US editor at Oxford Analytica.
