This month is witnessing the development of two major issues, the first of which is the peace initiative in Syria by UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan and the accordance of international players on it. The second issue is the negotiations between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with Germany, on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Undoubtedly, the development of the two issues will reflect significantly on the upcoming G8 summit, which is due to be held in the middle of May, as well as on the relations between international powers; the US-Europe alliance against the new strategic alliance between Russia and China.
Of course, there is an interconnection between the Syrian and Iranian dossiers. The international powers which oppose political and security escalation are the same in both dossiers, and also are the same world powers pitted against Tehran and Damascus.
In the past few months, the world witnessed a dangerous diplomatic escalation in the Syrian and Iranian issues, to the extent that led some regional and international powers to issue statements involving scenarios of potential military strikes against Iranian sites, as well as of the possible foreign military intervention in Syria, similar to the Libyan scenario.
The media and diplomatic escalation regarding the Iranian and Syrian issues came as a result of the varied positions between Moscow and Beijing on the one hand and between Washington and the European Union, on the other.
However, this escalation has faded recently after the Nato alliance realised the seriousness of the Russian and Chinese positions and the redlines set by Russia against any foreign military action in Syria and Iran.
Comprehensive encirclement
The US and the EU are fully aware of the dangers of strained relations with Moscow and Beijing, especially at this critical time when the American and European economies are on the verge of collapse.
Also, both the US and Europe are in urgent need of good relations with Russia, so as to facilitate the mission of Nato forces in Afghanistan.
This happens as President-elect Vladimir Putin takes up the presidency of Russia on the grounds of the political rule that he initiated during the Munich Conference in 2007 when he reiterated his rejection of the US as being ‘the sole master’ of the world. Since then, Moscow has considered the American policy as a source of direct threat to its interests. Also, it has been warning against Washington’s policy with regard to the deployment of the missile shield in a number of countries as a threat to the national Russian security.
Moscow also realised that the US military presence in the Arabian Gulf, Afghanistan and a number of Islamic Asian republics is a comprehensive encirclement of the Russian security that runs parallel with the Nato extension to Eastern Europe.
This means that Russia is striving to restore some spheres of influence that it had lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union through steady steps.
Now, Russia is seeking to get back to the Middle East when it restores its status as a great power capable of making deals. Today, the world is witnessing the gradually diminishing role of the US against the growing role of Russia and China.
The current tension between the two countries has nothing to do with ideologies. In fact, the Cold War broke between the US and Russia in the wake of the mutual threats of the use of nuclear weapons, as in the case of the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960s. It also erupted against the backdrop of devastating wars in countries of the Third World, as part of the competition between the US and Russia over spheres of influence.
Currently, Russia’s direct interests, domestic security and the security of its borders with Europe top the list of its priorities. Furthermore, Russia is determined more than ever to thwart any attempt to isolate it politically and security-wise, as Washington did when it sought to expand the Nato alliance through the missile shield project.
Moscow is dealing with the administration of US President Barack Obama with the hope that it would be more understanding of the Russian position than the previous administration, and that Obama would respect the policies he announced when he came to office with regard to ending US dominance over international laws and respect of the UN.
Now, Europe serves as a counterbalance between Russia and the US as there are many western and eastern European countries that believe that escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington is not in their interests, and thus does not want to choose between one party and another.
This is simply because Russia is now an important source of energy for Europe, and there are growing significant commercial and economic interests between Russia and the European Union. Hence, the European Union’s position is a very important factor in Russia-US relations.
No doubt that the list of disputed issues between Moscow on the one hand, and Washington and the Nato on the other, is huge. But, Moscow is fully aware of the US and Nato’s need of coordinating with it on many issues, most notably the war in Afghanistan.
The countries which have troops in Afghanistan are looking for a way out of the Afghan quagmire, while Russia is benefiting from the war against the Taliban and Al Qaida and their threats in Muslim regions close to Russia.
Russia, regardless of the nature of its ruling regime, cannot be isolated or encircled within its boundaries alone. This was the case with Tsarist and communist Russia, and it is the case today.
Of course, it is in the interest of the world to correct the imbalance in the international relations and to end America’s exclusive dominance over the world.
If Russia and China succeed in handling these crises at this stage, this will reflect positively on all international matters, most notably the challenges in the Middle East which include Iran’s nuclear issue, the current events in Syria and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
But, it would be foolish to repeat the same mistakes that the Arabs made more than a century ago, by betting on foreign interference, whether regional or international, to achieve national Arab interests.
Achieving the national Arab interest requires self-reliance and improvement of the Arab status within each country and the Arab world as a whole.
The entire Arab region is now on the brink of collapse due to inter-Arab struggles on the official and popular fronts, in addition to the plight of foreign occupation and interference and the chronic social, political and economic crises in most Arab countries. Primarily, these adverse conditions have encouraged foreign interference and dominance. What is more important now is how the Arabs can learn from their mistakes and make the best use of their influence in the balance of international relations.
Sobhi Ghandour is the head of Al Hewar Centre in Washington.
