The Six Arab Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE are pleasantly surprised to see the US take the lead role in the fight to ‘degrade and defeat’ Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). Many are surely rejoiced to see a more determined US President Barack Obama. When the Arab Gulf states see the US step in to avert regional disorder that is not only encouraging but it is music to their ears. A decisive superpower is always needed here and there and nearly everywhere in this typically Hobbesian international system.
But as pleased as the Arab Gulf states are right now, they are also sceptical about Obama’s new resolve and America’s sudden change of attitude. At this initial stage, most Gulf capitals feel they are completely in the dark as to what exactly the US is up to and wants to accomplish and what Washington’s true motives are when it comes to fighting an extended war against Daesh. In other words, what are the strategic imperatives of the Obama war? They privately wonder whether there is some deep thinking in Washington or this is simply about the president’s own legacy. Others cannot help but ask if this is another imperial war that will eventually end up in disaster — similar to the grand Iraq invasion in 2003.
Their concerns are legitimate and are part of the lingering doubt about the strength and durability of the American commitments to fight the fight to the very end. Basically, the Arab Gulf states do not believe that the innately pacifist Obama has the energy and the stomach to go through with an extended war. Just a year ago, Obama had said it loud and clear: “I have spent four-and-a-half years to end wars, not to start them.” But now he seems full of energy to promote his own open-ended war in Iraq and Syria to dismantle “this network of death”. Astonishingly, he sounds these days as warlike as George W. Bush ever was. This born-again interventionist and war-enthusiast Obama is too good to be true. They hope he keeps his words, does not make a jolting U-turn and that America means business and does not make an abrupt exit.
Frankly, the Arab Gulf states seriously fear entrapment and abandonment and being left alone to deal with the unknown. There is no guarantee that this will not happen again. The question of the hour is whether this war on Daesh is a reactive response to the beheading of two Americans by a murderous group or it is another imperial war or even part of a well-thought out strategy to re-engage the region and prevent further chaos. The videotapes showing the horrific beheadings of several western journalists and aid workers by the terrorist Daesh movement are repulsive and America has every right to go after the killers and bring them to justice. But is that all there is to this huge global mobilisation of nearly 50 states’ resources, including six Arab States, against Daesh?
One thing is certain, America is far from being frank about its true intentions. No one knows what triggered this sudden change in US policy and what is behind the American posture in taking to the volatile Middle East politics? Furthermore, there is the constant fear that every time the US touches the Middle East it makes things worse and instead of solving regional problems it invariably creates bigger ones. History also shows that every time Washington tries to destroy a monster it unintentionally creates a bigger monster. The Harvard professor, Stephen Walt, has lately suggested a hands-off policy of “do no more harm”.
Unfortunately, America spends billions of dollars every year on intelligence, think tanks and legions of Middle East experts, but fails to understand the real dynamics of the Middle East. It insists on making blunders of historical proportions and leaves the place in a bigger miss. This time around, it may be empowering extremist Iran-backed Shiite militants who are as murderous as Daesh. Singling out one terrorist group while empowering another is not a smart policy. There is also the deep concern about Iran, which has a proven record of taking advantage of America’s mistakes. It could be once again the net beneficiary of this campaign against Daesh. This is going to be a nightmare scenario for the Arab Gulf states and feeds into the conspiratorial thinking that America and Iran are in this together.
Whatever the concerns about the final outcome and the unintended consequences, the Arab Gulf states are committed to roll back Daesh once and for all. Their commitment is solid and irreversible. They are sending the best of their sons and daughters to be at the forefront of the ongoing air strikes against Daesh. They seized the moment as full partners flexing their soft and hard powers in full display for all to see.
This is a big decision for the usually cautious Arab Gulf states. They wonder if the US really appreciates the huge risks they are taking upon themselves, especially for Saudi Arabia, which has put all of its military, political and moral weight behind the US-led campaign.
The risk taken by Saudi Arabia is formidable considering the difficult domestic challenges involved for the kingdom. Riyadh, in particular, deserves special recognition for its public involvement in this global mobilisation against Daesh. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf partners are rightly asking what they get in return for being on the right side of the fight so publicly. Certainly not another unkind and ungrateful statement by the often misspoken US Vice-President Joe Biden. Hopefully, Washington and the other world capitals have at least one good answer to deliver to the various Gulf capitals.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is professor of Political Science. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE
