Conservative leader and British Prime Minister Theresa May will wake up on the morning of June 9, knowing if her blatant robbery attempt to seal a powerful majority for her party worked, or if, against all political odds, a ragged coalition of anti-Brexiteers managed to somehow keep her tempered and restrained for the two years of negotiations that still lie ahead for Britain in its decision to leave the European Union (EU).
While Britons have a choice to make in the coming 34 days whether to grant May the super-majority she so craves, the remaining members — the EU27 — have agreed on a negotiating position that is diametrically opposed to the cheery cheerio chat emanating from 10 Downing Street. Indeed, if reports from a dinner held there on April 26 are true, there’s a chasm as wide as the English Channel between Brussels and London, with May driving the Brexit bus dangerously close to the White Cliffs of Dover.
Senior eurocrats are suggesting that while May is spinning a message of strong leadership and a clear vision of a hard Brexit, the more accurate take is one of a leader who hasn’t a grip on the full consequences or reality of what a hard Brexit fully means, and that her vision is blurred by political myopia.
That Wednesday dinner was attended by May and David Davis, her Minister responsible for Brexit, and by Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission — the political cabinet of the European parliament, along with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator.
Reports from the meeting suggest that May and Davis were irritated by Juncker and Barnier’s insistence on two irrevocable conditions as a precursor to any Brexit negotiations. First, Britain would have to settle its bills with the EU, which Brussels says are €60 billion (Dh240.64 billion). Secondly, Britain will be required to guarantee the residency rights of EU citizens living in the United Kingdom. Latest estimates for the end of 2016 suggest that there are some 3.3 million from EU nations living in the UK. It’s also estimated that there are 1.3 million British citizens living in the EU27.
In the British media, the dinner meeting was described as “constructive” — Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung offered another — with May telling Juncker Britain didn’t legally owe a penny under existing treaties. She also suggested EU citizens would only have the same rights as any other nationalities living in the UK.
In the past few days, more accounts have surfaced from the meeting — and indications that it was a cause of indigestion. May reportedly becoming irritated with Davis for his interruptions and sharing of his own version of what Brexit would look like. Indeed, given the likelihood come June 9 that May will be drawing up her new Cabinet, don’t be surprised if Davis has an altered portfolio, or one that requires his sharing responsibilities further, and that shuffle-demotion will be then spun as the need for a strong negotiating team to get the best deal for Britain in those Brexit negotiations — which is what the need for the general election was spun as in the first instance.
It’s also interesting to note that immediately after desserts and polite farewells, Juncker telephoned German Chancellor Angela Merkel to say how the first servings of Brussels sprouts went down. The next morning, Merkel told the Bundestag that there were “some in Great Britain who have illusions” about how Brexit would work. The chancellor was clear and unequivocal: “Countries with a third-country status — and that’s what Great Britain will be — cannot have the same or even more rights as a member of the European Union. All 27 members and the European institutions agree on this.”
But she went further, telling May and her merry band of Brexiteers that there will be no talks until London pays its dues. “Ladies and gentlemen,” she continued, “you may think that all this is self-evident. But I have to put this so clearly because I get the impression that some in Great Britain still have illusions about this, and that is a waste of time ... We can only make a deal about Britain’s future relationship to the EU once all questions about the terms of its exit can be clarified to a satisfying degree.”
If any leader in Europe is in a position to take a firm line over Brexit, Brussels and money, it’s Merkel. Her nation remains the largest contributor, putting in €24.2 billion into the EU budget of €143 billion in 2016.
Last week, the EU27 leaders gathered in Brussels to discuss Brexit. First and foremost, the leaders agreed that the UKs financial obligations and citizens’ residency rights had to be agreed to by London before anything else followed. The residency portion itself covers 25 separate existing agreements that will need to be resolved, showing how complex divorce will be.
And in another clear message to Britain that the Brexit vote had destabilised the very unity of the UK itself, the EU27 said, should a vote be held on reuniting Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland to its south, the former British province would gain immediate and automatic membership of the EU. The re-unification of Germany set such a precedent, and while few but the most ardent Irish republicans dare talk now about a unity vote, suddenly the centenary anniversary of Irish division in 2021 takes on a whole new dimension. By that stage, May’s hard Brexit will be a fait accompli.
With pro-European economist Emmanuel Macron poised to win Sunday’s French presidential election, Team Europe is about to be strengthened even further.
Following the Downing Street dinner and after the Brussels gathering, Juncker says he believes there’s more than a 50 per cent chance that the UK would leave the EU without a Brexit deal in place. With less than two years to negotiate such a deal, time is not on May’s side.
Traditionally, any reform measure in Europe takes years and progress is painfully slow. When it comes to driving a hard divorce, however, the EU27 is united: It took the bloc just 15 minutes to approve its negotiating position.
The British insist that the talks themselves should be closed and progress kept confidential. Europe couldn’t disagree more, and EU27 wants the progress reports made public to all. After all, what has May and her team got to hide from the British public anyway? They were the ones who created this whole mess in the first place.
