Three year ago I was asked by prominent Research centre to speak to its audiences on topic was hot at the time “the impact of Arab Spring on Gulf States” I did chose a very strong and controversial phrase to deliver the message as strong as words can carry, the title goes like this, “The gulf state has bought a lottery ticket on the Arab Spring, without buying an Insurance policy”! It was obvious at the time that some Gulf States does involve themselves directly or indirectly in to the unfolding events on most Arab counters affected by the “spring”! Without looking seriously first to organize their efforts, and second to draw lines what they want or don’t want from the whole episode unfolding on those counters, infect some of their polices was contradicting each other. Iran on the other hand went ahead benefiting from events, using the political vacuum created by the turbulence a accrued in number of Arab counters to expand its influence and presence, in a number of Arab counters, like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and try hard to evoke small groups adhere to Tehran ideology In Bahrain, Yemen to play havoc with peace and stability of the region. The events in Yamen was the straw which brock the camel back, Gulf States has been reluctantly draw to the confrontation, the question was ether to let Tehran dominate the religion, and sit doing nothing waiting for the next move, or act decisively.
The move taken by King Salman was unprecedented and unexpected, he manage to bring together ten deferent counters to join the campaign, without event sufficient time prior to the move for the United State. Yemen is a vital and strategically situated to Oman and Sadia Arabia, and Gulf states. Sadie Arabia is the Pillar of the Gulf State, if its security and stability threaten in one way or other, it goes without saying that the Gulf Stated security and even welling could be put in acute danger. That why the “Firmness Campaign “has started last week, to bring the ligament Yemen government back to power , and to put an end the Tehran expansionist polices . The move was the lest expected by Tehran, it took policy maker in Iran in a very difficult situation, soon they asked their tools in some Arab country to come with policy statement, trying to win some of Arab Public opinions, by eluding to the priority of struggle in Palestine,, and the dangerous of Arab internal fighting, and some other slogans, in other places Tehran try to evoke trouble by ordering ideological flowers to state making disturbances like what is happing in Bahrain.
Abdull Ali Saleh, the outset President of Yemen sent his older son Ahmed to strike a deal with Saudi official, at last mints before the stat of the campaign “Firmness” his offer was too late and to fragile even to consider, as Saleh promises and deals was recurrently broken before. In fact Saleh is the main element who started all this miss, very greedy to power, he won’t let go, he apprise to accept the GCC accord hammered out for Yemen, although the accords gave him a lot of privileges, like amenity for himself and family, keeping his with, and staying in Yemen, he allied hem self with small and fundamental elements ( Houthis) his bitter enemy before, just to pave his way back to power, the Houthis took advantages of a weaken state, to overrun the whole country, to extent to dislodge the legitimate head of state. Although Firmness campaign was and still supported by good number of counters, the Arab League Summit recently held in Sharm Shake, gave the campaign majority support, still few voices are reluctant to see the acute danger out of Tehran polices. Iraqi came with a very unusual excuses, saying they oppose the use of force! Forgoing that they are now in office because of “Use of force” practice by internationals powers, and was with the help of Arab Neighboring counters, like Saudi Arabi, Kuwait, and UAE! It was obvious that they Speke with their master voice. Never the les, the Air war campaign has not yet granted to by so to spike “Insurance Polices” needed to guarantee the long term polices for stability and security of the Gulf region and Yemen. To some observers the Campaign has loosen Iran tough stand on nuclear talks in Laurent, Swaziland, and find itself in awkward situation but to sign, Iran probably will uses all its tools available by here in some Arab counters to obstruct the positive outcome wished by the Firmness campaign leaders, it will use first Arabic media to undermined the goals of this campaign, by deferent means, Tehran holds in its hand at less more than five Televising stations podcasting in Arabic, the indirect tools are the newspapers and other media, owned by the satellite groups of Tehran, farther more, there are what could be refer at as the (Faith column) those can be brought to the surface, and start a probing for weaknesses and soft targets to confuse Arab masses to the purpose and goals of the Firmness campaign, to try weakening the internal front. This has happened already by some who put at their new media cite some negative slogan, two of those in Kuwait where refer to prosecutor office already, the campaign has its own dangerous gliding as well, what’s need is to think seriously to the day after, that is the real insurance police, my suggestions is to bring some experience group some from Yemen to start thinking why “Yemeni paradigm” has failed!!
Mohammad AlRumaihi is a professor of Political Sociology at Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@rumaihi42
