For four years, Turkey has tried to be neutral over the Syrian civil war and the consequent emergence of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), but Daesh’s suicide bomb last week in southern Turkey has changed all that. The killing of 32 people and a fire-fight on the border led to immediate Turkish military action and revealed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policies to be far more reactive than strategic. Nonetheless, it is encouraging that Turkey has joined the international coalition against Daesh. Its hesitation on this core issue has put Ankara at odds with many of its friends, including the United States and many Arab states that have committed to the fight. The existential nature of the struggle against Daesh should not allow any nation state in the region to opt out and the coalition will welcome Turkey’s opening of its air bases to coalition war planes.
But there was an extra strand to the fighting last week. PKK Kurdish separatists ended their truce with Turkey, apparently because they interpreted Turkey’s previous hands-off policy on Daesh as active support for the terrorist group, whom the Turks have been fighting in Iraq and Syria. This is why the PKK killed some Turkish police officers, which caused Turkey to bomb several PKK positions in Kurdistan and arrest hundreds of suspected members of the group in Turkey.
Some years ago, Erdogan had made great play of his success in starting a peace process with the PKK and its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan, but this hurt his support from Turkish nationalist voters. It is possible that Turkey’s reluctance to join the attack on Daesh was actually a reluctance to help the Kurds who are enmeshed in fighting Daesh. Following Erdogan’s failure to win a majority in parliamentary elections, he is struggling now to form a coalition. If that fails, he may call new elections and hope that attacking both PKK and Daesh will help him regain his missing support and the parliamentary majority he craves.
