The Syrian civil war is murderous enough without the risk of a confrontation between Russia and America being added to it. The risks of a major clash have escalated dramatically with Russia’s deployment of the SA-23 Gladiator anti-missile system for the first time outside Russia, which it claims is to defend against attacks by terrorist groups. But the Russians have implied that the weapon may be used against US planes after Russia threatened to attack “unidentified airborne targets” and “will not have time to identify the origin of air strikes”. The situation in Syria is so chaotic that neither the Americans nor the Russians can control what might happen, which increases the risk of a clash with devastating effect and lasting international consequences.
The many Syrian militias on both sides have fought their way to a patchwork division of the country that has lasted for some months. Despite relentless fighting and the use of sieges on civilians and military areas, neither side seems able to make a distinctive breakthrough because neither side is organised. The government forces are a chaotic mix of Iraqi Shiite militiamen, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who are fighting on behalf of the Iranian government, and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, who have provided some of the regimes most effective units. The Syrian Army itself has to play second fiddle to its visiting allies because it has lost thousands through desertion and only the few elite Alawite units are trusted to join the fighting.
The many secular and religious opposition militias are in a slightly better shape as they make alliances on the spot for immediate and short-term territorial advantage, with little regard for any strategic aims. In addition, the secular opposition is all too aware that the Americans may be allied with them in Syria, but in Iraq, the Americans are fighting alongside their Shiite militia enemies as part of the coalition backing the Iraqi government and its militias against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).
The confusion does not stop there. The Russian pilots bombing the opposition in Aleppo see themselves as fighting extremist terrorists, as do the American pilots flying from their aircraft-carriers in the Gulf or Mediterranean Sea, as they attack different targets in Daesh-held areas. Both sides risk direct warfare if they do not back down and seek a more rational approach to finding peace in Syria.
