Ban Ki-moon will step down from his position as Secretary-General of the United Nations, a position the former South Korean foreign minister has held since 2007. The search now is on in full swing to find his replacement — the ninth secretary-general since the world body was set up in the aftermath of the Second World War. The position has never before been filled by a woman and despite the fact that there are five in a field of nine jockeying for the top diplomatic job, there seems little chance now that the UN will opt for a female leader. That it won’t has nothing to do with sexism, but is a reality of the secretive and wheeling-dealing lobbying that’s under way.
So far, since the race began in earnest over the summer, there have been a series of straw polls of the candidates by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — Russia, China, United States, United Kingdom and France, who each hold all-powerful vetoes — and the other 10 rotating members of the Security Council. Those straw polls have shown that Antonio Guterres, the former prime minister of Portugal and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, is a strong favourite to lead the world body. But being a strong favourite does not necessarily translate into success in the ultimate outcome and politics and dirty tricks are as much part of the process as is the art of diplomacy.
The reality is that each of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council will ultimately decide who will be the next secretary-general. By convention, the holder of the office rotates between the Americas, Africa, Asia and Europe. With Europe’s turn now, Russia strongly believes that it’s time for an east European candidate and hence the fact that six of the nine in the race are from that region. That Guterres is Portuguese and has led a nation that is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation may bring a Russian veto. Should Russia throw its support overly in favour of an East European candidate, the gambit would likely see a subsequent veto from the western powers. Though not performing well in the straw polls, Helen Clark, the former prime minister of New Zealand may still be a compromise choice.
The backroom dealing only highlights the urgent need for meaningful reform at the UN. India, with its 1.2 billion people, should have a permanent seat at the Security Council, while Arab interests also need equal treatment. Sadly, there’s little likelihood of reform as long as the five winning powers from the Second World War control the game and frame the rules.
