In 2003, when an Anglo-American coalition invaded Iraq and toppled the regime of Saddam Hussain, it also opened the doors to Iraq’s long-time nemesis, Iran, to gain a foothold in the country. In the years that followed, that foothold has been solidified to such an extent that today, the regime in Tehran calls the shots at every level of the political and security establishment in Baghdad. Iran-backed militias form the backbone of the Iraqi government, and it has become almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which Iraq can have a political dispensation that is independent of Tehran. The last nail in the coffin was the Iraqi forces’ disintegration during the blitz by Daesh terrorists in 2014, after which Iranian military advisers and personnel flooded Iraq.
In Lebanon, a similar situation has unfolded over the years when, with the connivance of the dictatorship in Syria and the hold it used to exercise over Lebanon before 2005, Iran armed, trained and funded a virtual army — Hezbollah — that is a major player on the political stage in Lebanon, and is a formidable armed force in the country, much more powerful and capable than the Lebanese national army. In other words, Iran has a proxy in Lebanon that is beholden to it, and is willing to carry out the wishes of its masters in Tehran. And Lebanon’s parliamentary elections are almost certain to increase Hezbollah’s influence in the government.
With both Iraq and Lebanon heading to the polls next month, the Iranian elephant in the room looks even larger. There is legitimate concern in the region and beyond that the polls will provide another opportunity for Tehran to tighten its already considerable grip on the political situation in these two countries.
The Sunni community in these two countries is aghast at the blatant manner in which Tehran is playing the sectarian card in their homelands. And at the way in which a non-Arab state is being allowed to become an all-powerful presence in these Arab lands. Even at the international level, there is growing alarm. US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis last month accused Iran of “mucking around” in Iraq’s elections, adding that the US had “worrisome evidence” that Tehran was sending “not an insignificant amount of money” into Iraq to try and sway the ballot. True to form, the Iraqi government rejected the accusation.
In Iraq’s election, about 500 members of the Shiite paramilitary forces or politicians linked to these militias are running for parliament. If elected, there’s no doubt about where their loyalties will lie.
