The surprise announcement that Russia is withdrawing its troops from Syria appears to be good news for this week’s peace talks in Geneva. The Russian departure should mean that the regime of President Bashar Al Assad takes a more conciliatory line after losing the active support of the Russian military, which made a substantial difference during the seven months of their Syrian campaign. Thanks to the Russian air force in particular, the regime captured a lot of territory from the opposition. It is true that Al Assad will still have the support of his long-term allies of Iran and Hezbollah, but while they prevented his total collapse in the early years of the war, they failed to help him gain much later on.
It was Russian forces that entered Syria in September, that saved Al Assad’s forces from a complete collapse, but Russian officials have made it clear that President Vladimir Putin has been disturbed by Al Assad’s unnecessarily hard line in Geneva. Russia wants the talks on an interim government to succeed or at least set up a deal to stop the fighting so that more substantive talks can start. So they will not be happy with their ally’s promise that he will militarily take back all the territory that he has lost in the civil war. Russia entered Syria to raise its profile as an effective international player, in which it succeeded — especially, given America’s lack of response — and also to build a strategic presence in a useful territory, which did not come to much use as their forces were continually bogged down in fighting in the Syrian civil war.
Nonetheless, there has to be some suspicion over Russia’s motives for its surprise withdrawal. On the face of it, it is hard to see any ulterior motive other than an increasingly desperate need to re-engage with the West. The sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, following its annexation of Crimea, have hurt Russia’s economy and the effect has been greatly magnified by the collapse of oil prices, which has left oil-dependent Russia struggling to pay its bills. It will not be a surprise to find that Russia gets some revision of the sanctions in return for its withdrawal from Syria. This may be good for Russia, but does not help Russia’s allies who hoped that Moscow’s support would take them to victory. After five years of war, millions of Syrians deserve more than being pawns in a great power struggle.
