An estimated 5 million Catalans are technically eligible to vote today in a referendum to determine their region’s place in or out of Spain. But no one knows for sure if indeed the vote will go ahead, under what circumstances, and just how many will actually dare cast a ballot, given that the entire process has been deemed illegal by the Madrid government and Spain’s Constitutional Court.
In November 2014, Catalans held a non-binding plebiscite and voted 80 per cent for the city of Barcelona and the surrounding region to secede from Spain. That vote had been declared illegal, and the three main organisers have since been fined and banned from holding public office. That hasn’t stopped the separatists from trying again, but this time around, the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has played hardball, getting the plebiscite declared illegal, threatening legal action against anyone who promotes the vote, and has seized 10 million ballot papers and arrested at least 14 working on the referendum campaign. The reality is that there is no option under the Spanish constitution for any of the 17 regions that make up Spain to declare independence. While Catalonia has a unique language, cultural identity and a strong economic base, Spain is not divisible and can’t be carved up by any of its regional politicians in a bid to declare independence. The actions of the Rajoy government, though strong-handed, are indeed necessary to make sure today’s vote has no legitimacy whatsoever. Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan separatist leader has said he’ll declare independence if the majority back it. He’s wrong. This process is a charade. The Catalans would do far better to talk to Madrid and seek more regional powers now.
