This morning, Iran’s sophisticated electorate will vote in their managed presidential elections, but whoever wins will make very little difference to Iran’s malevolent policies in the Middle East. It is very unfortunate that both, the internationalist incumbent President Hassan Rouhani and his hardline challenger Ebrahim Raisi share identical views on continuing to try and export Iran’s sectarian divisions across the region.
Rouhani is a pillar of the Iranian religious establishment with a long track record of very senior posts in the Islamic republic, but he differs from his more isolationist opponents in his conviction that Iran can keep true to its revolutionary creed while also working with the outside world. This is why he worked so hard with the administration of former United States president Barack Obama to achieve the nuclear compromise that legitimised Iran’s controversial nuclear programme. But the deal did nothing to stop Iran’s activities in backing divisive forces in Bahrain, or Yemen where Iran has chosen to back Al Houthi tribal rebels against the legitimate government, nor in Iraq and Syria where Iranian forces act freely in support of Tehran’s client politicians, nor in Lebanon where Hezbollah could not have survived as an independent military force without Iran’s active support.
Raisi has had a career in Iran’s judicial system and he was recently made the custodian of one of Iran’s largest foundations that gave him considerable powers of patronage. But despite his hardline orthodoxy and the apparent backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the (subjective) estimates of public opinion show that he still has a considerable amount to catch up with Rouhani.
Rouhani’s weak point is the economic failure of the nuclear deal. The expected boom, after the nuclear sanctions were lifted, did not happen, as international banks stopped their multinational clients from doing business in Iran for fear of falling foul of US Treasury rules. This meant that the economy continued to stumble and many families all over Iran are suffering as they crave a better economic atmosphere. This has been exploited ruthlessly by Raisi who has made wild promises of aid and increased subsidies, but such a programme would not do the country much good in the long term.
The way forward is for Iran to abandon its support of terror and sectarian division in the Middle East and become a genuine good neighbour into which trade and investment would willingly flow. Otherwise, the impoverished people of Iran will continue to suffer.
