Ankara: Turkish northern Cyprus could deal a crippling blow to Turkey's hopes of joining the European Union tomorrow if, as expected, the breakaway region elects a hardliner in presidential elections.
It would be an enormous irony.
The enclave owes its very creation to a 1974 Turkish army invasion launched after a militant Greek Cypriot coup seeking union with Greece. Turkey has, since independence from Britain in 1960, acted as guarantor of Turkish Cypriot interests and is alone in recognising and supporting northern Cyprus.
Predominantly Muslim Turkey opened talks to join the wealthy bloc in 2005, but progress has slowed almost to a halt due in part to Ankara's failure to implement key reforms, including a settlement on the divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus.
Some 164,000 voters in northern Cyprus will hold the key to Ankara's aspirations to join the European Union when they cast ballots in an election in which a nationalist is favoured to unseat the pro-settlement incumbent.
Analysts say a victory for Dervis Eroglu, who supports a two-state confederation for the island's Turkish and Greek communities, would undermine UN-backed reunification efforts and dash Turkey's dreams of joining the EU. That prospect is in any case more than 10 years off, but hopes help drive reforms.
Polls give Eroglu, currently Turkish Cypriot prime minister, a large margin for victory and some even point to him winning the vote.
