Amman: Cracks in Syria's military are widening along sectarian lines, say analysts, fuelling an armed mutiny that may pose an even greater threat to President Bashar Al Assad than the street protests which have rocked the country for months.
Diplomats and military experts say army cohesiveness is fraying and defections increasing as the leadership, largely from the minority Alawite sect, sends troops out to crush unrest across the country of 20 million.
"The crackdown is looking increasingly unsustainable. [Al] Assad is more unable to rely on the majority Sunni rank and file. It is costing lots of money to move already exhausted core troops and his capability of launching simultaneous strikes on protest centres is diminishing," a European diplomat said.
"The Sunni backlash against him is growing, and we could see a scenario where he will lose the countryside."
The ruling elite faces a nascent armed insurgency emboldened by the overthrow and killing of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, opposition sources say.
Guerrilla raids
Defectors from the military have in recent weeks launched more deadly guerrilla raids on convoys and fortifications in the province of Idlib near the border with Turkey, and along the main Damascus-Aleppo highway in Hama and Homs to the south.
Dozens of soldiers have been killed in Homs, Hama and Idlib, opposition sources say. Authorities say "armed terrorist groups" have killed 1,100 soldiers and police since March.
Unlike Libya's successful rebels, defectors from Syria's military lack international support. A protracted conflict, with Al Assad holding on to main cities such as Damascus and Aleppo while opponents challenge his control of smaller cities and rural regions bordering Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.
Core troops from Al Assad's Alawite sect, mainly assigned to the best-equipped Republican Guards and the Fourth Armoured Brigade, show no sign of abandoning Al Assad.
Favourite tactic
They are backed by Alawite-dominated Military Intelligence and Air Force Intelligence, two units in charge of preventing dissent within the military as it presses on with a crackdown which the UN says has killed 3,000 people.
A repeated tactic of security forces is to deploy conscripts in rings around cities and towns, under the scrutiny of Alawite intelligence agents. Hundreds have been killed for refusing to obey orders, anti-Assad activists say.
The military is effectively commanded by Al Assad's younger brother Maher and their brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who diplomats say has been given enhanced responsibilities in leading the repression of protests.
W. Andrew Terrill, professor at the US Army War College, said insurgents were small in number but could inflict serious casualties because the Syrian army is structured to fight Israel and control Lebanon, not deal with guerrillas and urban warfare.
Terrill said that if controlling Syria eventually looked "hopeless" for Al Assad and his supporters, they might consider retreating to Alawite regions around the city of Latakia.
