Dubai: The impact of climate change will be acute in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and immediate action will be needed to avoid the projected consequences of worsening water shortages and rising food insecurity, according to a new World Bank report on climate change.
In 2006, flooding of the Nile River Basin affected 118,000 individuals – and led to 600 flood-related deaths. In the Jordan River Basin, 2008 was the 5th consecutive year of drought. Before these memories faded, June 2010’s Cyclone Phet – the 2nd-strongest tropical cyclone in the region – killed 44 people and damaged $700 million worth of properties in Oman.
“Floods may become more frequent as a result of climate variability – leading to heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecurity. Sea levels at 0.5 meters higher may flood 30 per cent of Alexandria, Egypt – displacing 1.5 million people and causing $30 trillion in damages,” says the Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries report that was released recently.
The year 2010 was globally the warmest since records began in the late 1800s, with 19 countries setting new national temperature highs. Five of these were Arab countries, including Kuwait, which set a new record at 52.6 °C in 2010, only to be followed by 53.5 °C in 2011.
“Over the past 30 years, climate disasters have affected 50 million people in the Arab world, costing about $12 billion directly and many multiples of that indirectly. Recent trends suggest that dry regions are becoming drier and flash floods have become more frequent,” it said.
About 40 per cent of jobs in the Arab region are derived from agriculture. By 2050 production may decline due to less rainfall and hotter conditions. About 100 fruit, crop, and livestock species were domesticated in the Arab region. More than 30 per cent could face extinction from warming of just 1-2°C.
“A harsher climate threatens livelihoods throughout the region. Extreme weather could affect both the annual $50 billion tourism industry and agriculture, already under severe climate stress. The combination of higher temperatures, lower rain fall and increased frequency of drought could cause more crop failures and lower yields putting MENA’s rural population, nearly half the region’s total, under growing stress,” says the report.
Rural non-farm households – the poorest group in Yemen – are projected to lose $3.5 billion due to climate variability and climate change. Over the next 30-40 years, climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in household income: down 7 per cent in Tunisia to 24 per cent in Yemen.
“Reducing vulnerability to climate change will require concerted action on multiple levels,” said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development. “Political leadership now will be critical in establishing climate change as a national and regional priority.”
The Arab world has been adapting to climate change for centuries. There is a long history and tradition of coping with the associated challenges, such as changes in temperature and rainfall. New climate change risks are emerging at a much faster rate, including the prospect of a world that is four degrees hotter, and resilience built up over years is being severely tested, the World Bank warned.
“Climate change is a reality for people in Arab countries,” said Inger Andersen, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa region. “It affects everyone – especially the poor who are least able to adapt – and as the climate becomes ever more extreme, so will its impacts on people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. The time to take actions at both the national and regional level in order to increase climate resilience is now.”
The data shows a steady increase in the number of flash floods, with more than 500,000 people affected in the 2000s compared with only 100,000 in the 1990s. Flash Floods are up across the Arab region due to more intense rainfall, affecting twice as many people as 10 years ago.
“The livelihoods of men and women are potentially at risk from climate change. Men and women have different vulnerabilities, largely based on their respective roles in society,” Andersen says.
“Left unaddressed, these changes in the family structure have the potential of becoming significant sources of stress. Actions taken to help both men and women understand and adapt to these changes at the household level are important regarding the possible policy responses.”
