Sometimes prominent figures in the oil industry come out with statements that really stick in the mind. Fifteen years ago Shaikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani, the former Saudi oil minister, said that the "Stone Age did not end because people ran out of stones." He was implying that we may say goodbye to the oil age when plenty of oil is still in the ground.

Fifteen years later the world still has an insatiable thirst for oil and in spite of the drive for other sources of energy, oil is still king. In 2007 world energy consumption was close to 11.1 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) and more than 36 per cent of that is oil energy, the highest among other sources.

Of course, since the end of the Stone Age, humanity is probably using increasing quantities of stones for other purposes and the same could happen with oil, although this is far-fetched.

Next decades

It seems that Shaikh Ahmad wants to make another statement by which he will be remembered for the next decades. As Opec is celebrating its Golden Jubilee, he is reported in Oil and Gas Journal of August 30 as predicting that the future is growing short for Opec and that "Opec won't be able to exist another 50 years if hydrogen can be produced as a low-cost alternative energy source."

There is no doubt in my mind that hydrogen and other renewable energies are likely to play an increasingly important role in future energy supplies, but I don't think it is appropriate for anyone to predict the end of oil because of this.

Expenditure in hydrogen research is just starting and still low and only incentivised when oil prices are high. Therefore, although some technologies for producing hydrogen are available, they are costly and there are no projections for their future progress or any quantitative estimates for possible consumption. Even other forms of renewable energy, which are much more advanced than hydrogen energy, are still far from being widely used.

Opec in its World Oil Outlook 2009 suggests that renewable energies, other than biomass, contributed 59 million toe in 2007 and their contribution is likely to grow 7.4 per cent a year to 303 million toe only in 2030.

This in itself is not a small quantity except when it is compared with total energy consumption estimates of 15,804 million toe in 2030 when oil's share is likely to be 31 per cent compared to 1.9 per cent for renewables. Hydrogen as part of these renewables is much smaller.

Similar projections

The IEA in its World Energy Outlook 2009 gives more or less similar projections of 370 million toe of renewables in 2030 compared to 16,790 million toe of total primary energy. Renewables have to grow by more than 10 per cent a year persistently to 2060 before their contribution reaches 2030 estimated oil consumption.

The world is going more into unconventional oil and gas resources because we know that no matter how much we try, renewables' contribution in future energy supplies will not be enough.

Of course renewables' contribution is welcome even by oilmen as its high cost will put a floor under oil prices, a much desirable safety net for oil producers. At the same time it will extend the life of oil resources to the benefit of producers and consumers alike. When technology becomes available, it will take some time before its cost may go down and even then its penetration into markets may take more time, especially in developing countries.

The demise of Opec was predicted even when there was not even a few tonnes of renewable energy around and Opec survived the last 50 years with all its ups and downs.

If Shaikh Ahmad's remarks are meant to point to the risks in energy and oil markets and Opec in particular, they are welcome, especially if they are rephrased in less dramatic terms. The problem is, if they were less dramatic, maybe no one would have noticed.

 The writer is former head of the Energy Studies Department at the Opec Secretariat in Vienna.