Economic consequences of the so-called Arab Spring can be summarised in the drastic deterioration in economic conditions and the subsequent decline in economic performance of all sectors with no exception, as well as an increase in unemployment rates and outflow of local and foreign investments.
On the financial level, the Arab Spring countries, except for Libya — the oil-rich country — are on the verge of bankruptcy. The economic hardships can be obviously noticed in the sharp decline in reserves and deterioration in stock markets, thus prompting their immigrant manpower abroad, especially in the GCC countries, to increase remittances back home, which have been badly affected by the Arab Spring. This happened with an aim to contribute to the basic needs of their families due to inflation and high prices — a fact that helped to prevent the full collapse of financial conditions there.
Unfortunately, the new regimes that took over after the revolutions do not want to consider the real causes of this economic deterioration, neither do they want to tackle these issues by removing the causes which led to capital outflow, a decline in business activity and increase in inflation and unemployment rates. They, instead, refer to foreign plots seeking to overthrow the spring regimes.
For example, the latest developments in Egypt where the general situation had begun to stabilise after the presidential elections, when Egyptian President Mohammad Mursi issued the Constitutional Declaration-which has once again turned the situation upside down and led to street protests that brought back the situation to square number one, economically and politically.
Instead of revising the controversial decisions, considered by the judges of Egypt as unconstitutional, Khairat Al Shater, first Deputy Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, has accused the GCC countries and held them responsible for funding the huge protests, which erupted right after the Constitutional Declaration.
These accusations seem very funny. This is simply and logically because if the main reason for the protests is the Constitutional Declaration, have the GCC countries inspired the Egyptian President to issue this Declaration? Or, whether the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood are the ones who inspired the President to do so and put him it into a big trouble while he is still in the beginning of his term in office.
But when such accusations have not been welcomed or received reactions by the Egyptian people, silly accusations were issued against US President Barack Obama. The US president was accused of allowing the Egyptian President to take any measures even if they overpass the judiciary system if he would contribute to mediating between Hamas and Israel during the recent Israeli attacks on Gaza.
Meanwhile, the GCC countries have showed their readiness to help these countries economically by boosting the financial capacity of their central banks and increasing their investments in these countries.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have pledged aid packages for the spring countries despite the unfavourable investment environment and major risks. Nevertheless, the GCC states’ keenness on the stability of these countries, which eventually supports the regional stability of the GCC states, have contributed to the GCC’s willingness to take investment risks through pumping more money and aid amounts to the Arab Spring countries.
The accusations unleashed against the GCC countries are an insult to the President himself. Does it make sense that the President of the biggest Arab country would believe such senseless and baseless accusations, even if we assume their potential validity?
This reminds us of the incident when the US Ambassador in Iraq was accused when she met former Iraqi President Saddam Hussain before his ill-omened and fateful invasion of Kuwait.
In return, Washington, which is interested in Egypt’s stability, has helped in speeding up the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan of $4.8 billion, which has been put on hold after the recent unrest that followed the Constitutional Declaration, without ignoring the stand of Salafists against the loan deal for reasons that are unrelated to the economic professionalism required by the current situation.
And again, the recent measures taken by the new regimes in the Arab Spring countries are considered a miserable failure in addressing the economic and social consequences as well as the ongoing deterioration in infrastructure and services that increase people’s daily sufferings.
This situation requires a comprehensive review on how to address these repercussions professionally and remove the negative consequences of the alleged Arab Spring before the new regimes lose face.
This is also desparately needed before living standards decline and the poverty increases as a result of the economic deterioration in these countries.
Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.
