It is not known who coined the term ‘Arab Spring' to refer to the protests and political unrests in the Arab world, but few can deny that a vastly changed landscape has been left behind.
Radical changes have been seen in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen in 2011 and 2012, while Syria's so-called Arab Spring has turned out to be a series of bloody events.
Until now, the Arab Spring has not yet yielded its fruit. On the contrary, the security and economies of the countries have deteriorated. The situation is likely to worsen due to rising unemployment and the outflow of capital.
Worse still is the decline in revenue generated from key economic sectors, including a fall in production and the prospect that these countries will increasingly become reliant on foreign aid. According to the Arab league, the losses from the Arab Spring already stand at around $56 billion (Dh205.64 billion), and are expected to double to $120 billion this year.
Egypt, for example, has seen state reserves fall by more than half, and government cash may vanish completely by the end of this year. Public debt, meanwhile, has reached record levels of $226 billion for the first time in the country's history, while the surplus balance of payments totalling $1.3 billion in 2010 turned into a deficit of $18.3 billion in 2011.
Conflicts rising
This happens in a parallel with intensified political and sectarian conflicts that recently led the Province of Port Said — which witnessed a deadly football riot that left 74 young fans dead in February — to threaten to separate from Egypt and form its own independent republic.
As for Libya, while the new authority has managed to rapidly restore oil production to almost its previous levels — with support of foreign companies seeking to cash in on high oil prices and make up for a drop in Iranian exports — the country is more divided politically at present than any other Arab state.
The areas of Libya that are rich in oil are talking about seceding from the country.
Tunisia seems more stable than the other Arab Spring countries, but the Tunisian economy is yet to make any progress.
Investors have fled the country, taking with them, their capital while tourism is still suffering. It seems that tourists, especially Europeans, are reluctant to visit the country against a backdrop of Islamist groups calling for the implementation of Sharia law.
This is by no means unique to Tunisia. The Arab Tourism Organisation estimates that the Arab Spring has cost as much as $100 billion in lost tourism revenue.
Yemen is lucky to be a neighbour of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries which have made strenuous efforts to halt violence in the country and pave the way for a peaceful transition of power. The GCC has also committed to providing financial and humanitarian assistance to help Yemen overcome the repercussions of the Arab Spring events there.
Unlike any other Arab country, Syria, whose losses reached more than $40 billion, is likely to be the worst-hit country both economically and politically. The overall picture in Syria indicates that the outcome of the current events there will be catastrophic.
Bahrain, meanwhile, has managed to overcome most of the consequences of the political unrest that happened last year thanks to its wise manner in dealing with the events and thanks to the support of its sisterly GCC countries.
Bahrain is back on the path towards economic prosperity and development and the GCC has, in turn, provided an example of its competence in solving its problems.
At present the Arab world is in need of another kind of spring — a spring with economic prosperity and political stability that can offer equality, a decent life, job opportunities, and education and health services for Arab citizens.
The Arabs need a spring that can lay down the foundations of sustainable development away from lofty rhetoric and bombastic slogans. Only then can these countries flourish and yield development and economic progress.
Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.
