New York: A surprise surge in oil demand late this year and steady growth into 2011 will put Opec under mounting pressure to pump more crude than initially expected next year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Global oil consumption rebounded from the recession far faster than anyone predicted, rising by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) or 2.6 per cent this year, the biggest jump since 2004, according to the average estimate of 12 top oil analysts, Three months ago they expected only 1.5 million bpd growth.
This year "turned out to be a year of recovery, with economic and oil demand growth clearly beating expectations," David Wech at JBC Energy in Vienna said.
Driving demand
That rapid surge in demand from 2009's low base has not yet translated into higher forecasts for next year's growth, however, with the average projection unchanged at 1.5 million bpd from the previous poll in September.
Still, that will still be enough to drive demand to a record high, and increase the need for Opec's crude as new supplies from outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen slowing even more dramatically. The call on conventional Opec crude — including production from Iraq that is currently exempt from output targets — will rise by 800,000 bpd in 2011 to 30.5 million bpd.
Demand for Opec's oil next year is 700,000 bpd more than predicted in September, according to the poll, and 1.8 million bpd above the level the group needed to pump in 2009 during the global economic crisis.
