Dubai: Research firm IDC expects 2010 to be a better year than 2009 in terms of computer sales with many delayed projects in the Gulf countries expected to come on stream.

Total PC shipments this year are expected to rise by 23.98 per cent to 5.48 billion units, compared to 4.42 billion units in 2009, while the value of the projected sales is expected to rise by 20.21 per cent to $4.4 billion (Dh16.1 billion) compared to $3.66 billion in 2009.

"A lot of projects in education, health and fresh purchases from corporates in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are expected to take place this year, Omar Shihab, research manager, PCs and Systems, IDC Middle East and Africa, said in an interview with Gulf News.

Swapna Subramani, associate research analyst, MEA region, IDC, said, Oman will register a big growth in sales as the Ministry of Education is expected to revive delayed projects while the country's Information Technology Authority is expected to purchase 60,000 notebooks.

She said that 2010 is going to be very interesting as vendors become more aggressive. The notebooks market in the Gulf is still nowhere close to saturation but consolidation is expected despite the huge growth prospects.

Felix Baretto, business manager, PC division, LG Electronics, said: "Most probably Android being a new OS [operating system], would be ready only by the fourth quarter. As we predict that that Android could easily increase that Windows/Linux mix to 70/30 by the end of 2010 and to 50/50 by 2012. Plus, Android netbooks will be cheaper than Windows 7 netbooks."

Omar said prices are expected to remain at around the same levels as last year but vendors are expected to add more value to their products.

Oman is set to witness the fastest year-on-year growth this year at 35.37 per cent, followed by Qatar with 33.69 per cent, Bahrain with 27.47 per cent, Saudi Arabia with 25.38 per cent, and Kuwait with 21.95 per cent. The UAE market is expected to grow 21.14 per cent.

Desktop shipments are forecast to rise by 21.8 per cent to 956,042 units this year compared to 784,987 while notebook shipments are forecast to rise by 23.20 per cent to 3.77 billion units compared to 3 billion units. Netbooks are forecast to surge by 32.21 per cent to 749,363 units compared to 566,794 units.

Desktops are expected to contribute around 17.50 per cent of the total PC sales while notebooks are expected to contribute 68.80 per cent and netbooks 13.70 per cent this year.

Transition phase

Omar said the launch of new Intel Core chips coupled with Windows 7 in the fourth quarter had really lifted sales and the trend is expected to continue this year too with a lot of customers and corporates seen shifting to new Microsoft's operating system.

"In the second half of this year we can see a lot to transition towards new Intel and Windows 7. Whenever a new product is launched, it is first tested on consumers. Later word of mouth and acceptance spreads like wildfire and slowly corporates move in next. It is going to happen this year but it will be slow," Swapna said.

When asked about Android software, she said early adopters were expected to number between 1 to 2 per cent, but the actual market impact would be known with the product carving out a sizeable share. New technologies are likely to be launched but not expected to be market movers. 3D notebooks and iPad will find early adopters and niche markets but they are not expected to change market dynamics completely.

Omar said that virtualisation and cloud computing will gain momentum this year with maximisation of asset utilisation and enhancement of overall structure of data centres. Data explosion is going to continue, crisis or not, with banks especially looking to store large amount of data for longer periods of time.

The concept of cloud computing is in a maturing phase globally and regionally but has still not gone from the early adopters to the mainstream. There is still scope for standardisation and still a lot of products to be streamlined. Connectivity and infrastructure problems are still being experienced in the region. From an economic perspective, it is good as it involves a pay-as-you-go method. There is also a lot of concern on security.

Swapna said, in 2012, desktops will be overtaken by netbooks. Education has become a big taker of desktops so far. Like in many European and US countries, netbooks will be bought by the education sector in the Gulf, too.