Dubai: Middle East government bonds weathered regional turmoil and spillover from Europe's debt crisis in 2011, led by debt from oil producers Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
Regional bond yields declined by more than the emerging markets average this year, with Middle East yields down 24 basis points, or 0.24 of a percentage point, to 4.94 per cent, according to the HSBC/Nasdaq Dubai Middle East Conventional Sovereign US Dollar Bond Index. Emerging-market debt fell 10 basis points to 5.86 per cent, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show.
Higher oil prices
Qatar and the UAE bene-fited from higher oil prices this year amid a wave of unprecedented revolts that swept across the Middle East, toppling the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Investors may allocate more of their capital toward debt to cash in on the region's performance, said Mohieddine Kronfol, chief investment officer for Mena fixed-income and sukuk at Franklin Tempelton Investments.
"The Middle East and North Africa region has performed relatively well, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council, which has been supported by high commodity prices and re-allocations from countries affected by the Arab spring unrest," Andreas Kolbe, credit strategist at Barclays Capital in London, said in an e-mailed answer.
Oil prices advanced 9.1 per cent in 2011 even as crude oil production, the main driver of economic growth in the six-member GCC, rose, withstanding Europe's debt crisis.
Less risk
Credit risk of Gulf issuers improved with the economic upturn. Abu Dhabi's credit default swaps declined 34 basis points to 128, while contracts of Qatar, the world's fastest-growing economy according to the International Monetary Fund, fell 39 basis points to 127, according to CMA, which compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. Credit default swaps on AAA-rated Sweden and Finland fell 44 basis points to 78, the data show.
The yield on Qatar's 4 per cent dollar bond due January 2015 retreated 76 basis points this year to 2.36 per cent. For Abu Dhabi's 6.75 per cent dollar bond due April 2019, the yield tumbled 98 basis points to 3.38 per cent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Both issuers are rated AA at Standard & Poor's, the third-highest investment grade.
Investors and analysts said local demand has helped shore up regional debt. Buying from Lebanon's domestic banks supported government bonds, according to Kolbe and Sergey Dergachev, who help manage $8.5 billion (Dh31.2 billion) of emerging market debt at Union Investment Privatfonds in Frankfurt.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Lebanese bonds instead of US Treasuries widened 105 basis points in 2011 to 375, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co data. The gap between emerging-market sovereign debt and Treasuries widened 123 basis points to 407, the data show.
"Local support is also a big factor" behind the performance of Middle East bonds, said Kolbe. "It's true and helpful in the GCC and very helpful in the case of Lebanon."
Kolbe said similar support is diminishing in Egypt.