Al Khobar: Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which projected a budget deficit in 2011, is likely to post a 77 billion riyal (Dh75 billion) surplus based on an oil price of $80 (Dh293) a barrel, according to a research note.
State-owned National Commercial Bank predicted the kingdom would also surpass its spending and revenues forecasts, saying both were "understated."
Growing population
Last week, Saudi Arabia said it would spend 580 billion riyals next year in a push to create jobs for a fast growing population. It projected revenues of 540 billion riyals, resulting in a 40-billion-riyal deficit.
Gulf Arab states typically base their budgets on a very conservative oil price, which they do not reveal.
NCB forecast revenues of 753 billion riyals and expenditures of 677 billion riyals, based on an average oil price of $80 a barrel for Arabian Light crude and an oil output of 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on average.
"This would lead in turn to a budget surplus of 77 billion Saudi riyals, or 4.2 per cent of estimated GDP in 2011," the bank said.
Global benchmark US crude futures, which hit a 26-month high of $91.63 on Thursday, did not trade on Friday with the Nymex floor closed for the Christmas holiday while Opec's reference crude basket, which includes Saudi's Arab Light, was at $90.02 a barrel on Wednesday.
Opec's most influential oil minister, Saudi Arabia's Ali Al Naimi, said on Friday he was still happy with an oil price of $70-$80.
Oil dependence
The Saudi economy is heavily dependent on oil leaving the kingdom exposed to price volatility.
The kingdom, the biggest Arab economy, has accumulated huge reserves during a six-year oil price boom and is planning to spend more than $400 billion over the five years to 2013 to upgrade infrastructure, including airports and roads.
