Muscat: Oman's economy is likely to grow 5 per cent this year, slower than earlier government forecasts, as oil prices will probably not meet expectactions, an economy ministry official said yesterday.
The non-Opec oil producer said in March it expected its gross domestic product to jump 6.1 per cent in 2010, helped by a recovery in oil prices, but the official said it was now taking a more conservative view.
"We predict GDP in real terms will grow 5 per cent in 2010 because our oil production is expected to be higher this year," the official, who did not want to be named, told Reuters.
He said oil prices would probably not average as high as the country's previous expectations for 2010 of around $75 (Dh275.4) per barrel.
The revised growth figure still came in above many of Oman's neighbours in the region and other parts of the world, said Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Mena economist at Standard Chartered.
Good figures
"The [real] GDP figures are going to be the best in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] except for Qatar. They [Oman] revised them a little bit down but in relation to the volatility of the oil price," he said.
"It's still pretty dramatic good figures compared to what we see in the GCC and other parts of the world."
Oman sold its crude at an average price of $77.57 a barrel in the first half. Benchmark US crude moved around $75.70 a barrel yesteray.
The sultanate's GDP rose 2.2 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the first half of 2010, the economy ministry official said, compared with 1.8 per cent growth in the same period of 2009.
On Sunday, preliminary ministry data showed Oman's nominal GDP grew 30.4 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, but it did not release figures in real terms.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected Oman's economy to expand 4.0 per cent in real terms this year on higher oil prices, rising crude output and government spending, following a 3.7 per cent rise in 2009.
