Rays of hope to bridge power gulf

The international debate over Iran's right to develop its own nuclear capabilities stirred discussions here — the southern side of the Gulf — about the need to harness other forms of energy to cope with an era when oil supplies dwindle.

The issue of future energy in oil-rich countries, including Iran, becomes all the more crucial because of the recent increase in oil prices — approaching up to $100 per barrel recently.

Energy experts suggest that consumers will continue to buy oil at double the present price a few years from now, simply because the human race has not yet found another form of energy that can substitute for the diverse uses of oil.

Oil prices of $200 per barrel were undreamt-of just a few months ago. But now they seem quite possible. Such prices will generate great income for countries that have oil stocks exceeding their needs.

Earlier, oil-rich countries were sceptical about the efforts to harness other forms of energy. They felt that any form of energy other than oil-based ones was unwelcome competition for their sole source of income.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s Opec agreed to sell oil at lower prices because it wanted to encourage the development of alternate energy.

Nowadays, policymakers in oil-rich countries believe that any effort to preserve “black gold'' is welcome because it means that the wealth they have in their land will last longer and generate higher income for coming generations.

While a rise in oil prices is good news for oil producers such as Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, it poses crucial questions regarding their energy strategies.

One questions is: How long can oil producers enjoy a growing income that they need badly to sustain their development programmes, by selling oil and gas? 10, 30 or 100 years?

Not more, definitely, although oil reserves and production capacity vary from country to country.

Some of the other posers are: Why are oil producers consuming their oil irrationally when they can sell it at exorbitant prices in the future? Why don't they consider developing other means of energy that cost less so that they can sell their oil to those who are willing to pay?

The most important question of all is: What will the now oil-rich nations do when local consumption surpasses their capacity to produce oil — which will happen in another two to three decades in the case of Iran and some other GCC countries — if these nations do not find ways to harness alternative energy?

Sultan Ahmad Al Muhairi, marketing and refining director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said the GCC must think like consumers as much as producers.

“Domestic consumption of oil and gas is absorbing an increasing proportion of local production.

“By harnessing renewable energy alongside hydrocarbons, Arabian Gulf countries will be able to diversify their sources of energy.

"Likewise, we must examine ways to control consumption growth by focusing on energy efficiency. Oil is simply too precious a commodity to waste,'' he said.

The issue of energy has become highly economic, politically sensitive and, above all, a strategic question that nations all over the world can no longer ignore.

The wake-up call came this time from the oil markets themselves. Energy forecasters drew a gloomy picture about the future of oil in the world.

They said oil production reached its peak more than a year ago, while energy consumption is growing sharply — especially in China and India. The gap between demand and supply is widening every year, which dictates an increase in oil prices.

Therefore, the search for affordable, renewable and cleaner sources of energy has become a greater need than it was about 20 years ago. An additional advantage of finding alternative sources of energy is that they help reduce air pollution and the emission of harmful gases.

A group of scientists, strategists and energy experts who attended a three-day conference in November at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research, Abu Dhabi, discussed the issue of depleting hydrocarbon resources and the need to look for nuclear or other renewable energy options.

The pros and cons of each form of energy were highlighted, but the most interesting point that emerged was: The region could retain its position as a major energy supplier even after the oil and gas resources dried up, if the governments of the GCC start to aim at the sun! How?

Dr Franz Trieb, project manager and senior researcher of the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Centre, explains: “The sun is a generous power supplier if we know how to tap solar energy.

"A sunny country the size of the UAE can produce power that could suffice to meet Europe's needs or even meet the growing demand for power consumption in the subcontinent [India] and China.

“It is feasible and has been working [well] in different countries. The feasibility of such [a] project depends on the price and the availability of oil in the future.

"The thousands of square kilometres of scorching desert where the sun shines almost every day of the year could soon become the prime energy source of the world, if adequate investments are made in research and development.''

Dr Trieb said the geographical location of the Middle East, GCC and North African countries — in the midst of industrial nations that are ever hungry for energy — holds the promise that they would be able to retain their position as major suppliers, thanks to the efficient technologies to harness solar energy developed in the recent years.

“All that we need is to connect with the existing power grids of the European Union, the Middle East and the GCC countries. There is a need, of course, to improve the efficiency of these grids to allow greater power flows in both directions.

"We also need to plant advanced photovoltaic cells in the deserts to harvest power from the sun. The sunny climate of the Gulf region and the time difference between the GCC and the EU will make the power produced using Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology from the deserts in the region quite useful for consumers in Europe.

"We have to bear in mind that crude oil is expected to reach $200 in less than a decade, while solar technology becomes cheaper."

Trieb said power production by the CSP has become a reality and much cheaper than using hydrocarbon or nuclear generators. “I signed my household power supply contract with a German company that produces power mainly from the sun.

"My decision to switch to solar power was economic. One unit of energy produced using solar radiation is ten per cent cheaper than a unit produced using hydrocarbon or nuclear fuel in Germany,'' he said.

Trieb said one square kilometre of land in the desert could harvest up to 250 million kilowatt hours per year of electricity using CSP technology.

In addition to electricity, the same area could produce 60 million cubic metres of desalinated seawater.
Further, he said the development of CSP technology is becoming cheaper, while developing oil-based technologies is getting more expensive.

“In 1985, producing electricity using CSP cost as much as it would if oil prices were $200 per barrel. Today, the cost of energy production through CSP would compare to the cost if oil prices were $50 to $60 per barrel.

"The cost could go down to an equivalent of production at $40 per barrel in 2010."

Trieb said the technology has been developed to collect solar energy through concentrating solar collector fields — mirrors that focus solar radiation to generate heat would help run turbines.

Part of the heat produced would go to thermal energy storage to be used when solar heat cannot be produced. The system requires a partial fuel supply to cover periods when the solar collectors and thermal storage cannot run on their own.

Plan of action

Trieb predicts a big drop in the generation of electricity using oil and gas in the coming years. By 2050, he says, power generated using hydrocarbon fuels will drop to 33 per cent from 100 per cent at present. The balance will be covered by renewable forms of energy, mainly the CSP.

“The dependence on desalinated water in the GCC and the rest of the Middle East will also enhance the usage of the CSP in power production because of the capability of the new technology to produce sweet water,'' he added.

Europe has set its power production strategy for the year 2050. The plan mainly focuses on a consistent transition to a sustainable, inexpensive and environmentally compatible source of energy.

“It is up to the government in the Gulf and the Middle East region to take part in the plan for the benefit of societies in both regions,'' Trieb said.

Dr Bakr Bin Hamza Khoshaim, a member of the Shura (consultative) Council in Saudi Arabia and associate professor of mechanical engineering at King Saud University in Riyadh, said: “Electricity demand in the GCC and the Middle East is growing at an alarming rate of 8 per cent per year.''

In the Gulf countries, he said, the growth in power demand translates to a requirement of up to 290 gigawatts (GW) by 2028.

“To put the figure in perspective, the average annual growth in electricity demand in the Gulf is three times higher than in Europe,'' he added.

“The Gulf countries are exploring many options but in most cases these options are in an experimental phase and it will be long before they can be used for electricity generation,'' Dr Khoshaim said.

He said nuclear power is a possibility but it is three times more expensive than building a commercial fossil fuel-based power plant.

Taking into consideration the construction time required for a nuclear power station, it takes 10 to 15 years to realise production of power from such plants.

As for solar energy, it is ineffectual in meeting sudden, heavy power demand, while wind energy requires weather conditions that don't prevail in the region.

Dr Waheeb Al Naser, professor of applied physics, University of Bahrain, called upon the Gulf countries to try to benefit from solar and wind energy based projects in power generation and seawater desalination.

Al Naser said he is against nuclear energy because it is not a suitable option for the Gulf countries for its environmental implications.

Chernobyl meltdown

“The world is still suffering from the environmental effects of the Chernobyl meltdown even after more than 20 years, whereas the environmental effects of burning Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991 have vanished,'' he said.

As for solar energy, the Gulf countries are known for their many hours of sunshine — reaching about 3,200 hours per annum. Had the region invested in efficiently harnessing solar energy, it would have had a resource that could rival oil," Dr Al Naser said.

“In order for solar energy to be feasible, vertical solar radiation must be 5 per cent per hour. In the Gulf it reaches 7 per cent per hour. This means that the Gulf countries enjoy an unused energy source.''

If 1 per cent of the area of Saudi Arabia were allocated for solar energy generation, the power produced would meet the needs of all GCC countries (according to an estimate in 2005).

Dr Al Naser said the Gulf region must consider rationalising its power consumption. “Most buildings in the Gulf countries are not environment-friendly, energy efficient or sustainable.

"The construction industry in the region consumes 50 to 60 per cent of the energy produced. Dubai will start enforcing the concept of green buildings from 2008. This should encourage other GCC countries to follow,'' he said.