If there was a hope that recent moves by Russian President Vladimir Putin would bring an end to the difficult conflict in eastern Ukraine, the reaction on the ground has shown that there is a long way to go before peace breaks out in the former Soviet republic.
On Friday, Russian-backed separatists in the Donestsk region rejected an offer of greater autonomy within Ukraine, effectively torpedoing the 12-point peace plan signed by the warring sides last month. The announcement came as Ukrainian forces said they had been shelled or otherwise attacked 50 times on Thursday.
Earlier in the week, Putin had ordered the withdrawal of thousands of troops from Russia’s side of the border, offering hope at least that he was prepared to de-escalate the tensions in the ethnically-Russian region ruled by Kiev. But the categorical rejection of greater autonomy by the separatists shows that they cannot be swayed by the government of President Petro Poroshenko to end their campaign for independence in the Donestsk region. In May, the rebels declared independence and created two self-styled republics, and more than 3,500 have been killed in the resulting violence.
There is little doubt that these rebels now want to be reunited with Mother Russia, placing the Kremlin in a difficult position. What’s becoming increasingly obvious is that the separatists lack a united leadership, with local commanders literally calling the shots on the ground as the ceasefire rules are ignored on a weekly, if not almost daily, basis. And in this scenario, Putin and his administration seem to exert little actual control over the separatists.
Poroshenko has signed a law on “special status” for the Donestsk and Luhansk regions before meeting Putin on Friday. It calls for new local elections granted municipal, district and regional officials sweeping powers of self-rule. Separatist leaders almost immediately rejected the concession, however, declaring that they will settle for nothing short of full independence. The shaky ceasefire is now effectively dead. What is needed now is for the European Union, Ukraine, the rebels and Russia to meet urgently in a neutral setting to try and make peace a priority, with political settlements to follow.
