The Syrian government of Bashar Al Assad has agreed to work with Kofi Annan's plan for starting a dialogue with the opposition on Syria's future. The plan is backed by the UN Security Council, including Syrian allies Russia and China, and has attracted worldwide support. But serious doubts remain on whether the Syrian government will deliver its commitments since the same government accepted the previous Arab League plan, but totally ignored its requirements. Indeed, following the failure of the Arab League mission to Syria, the government troops carried out some of their worst assaults on densely populated civilian areas.
The six-point Annan plan commits the Syrian government to an inclusive political process; to stop fighting and halt the movement of troops and heavy artillery in civilian areas; a daily two-hour humanitarian truce to deliver aid and evacuate the wounded; the release of detained people; freedom of movement of journalists; and to respect the right of the people to demonstrate peacefully.
Despite the serious doubts that Al Assad regime has to inspire, it is right that the UN plan is supported by the world community and by the Arab League members. But it is all too obvious that Al Assad's forces have been ruthless in clinging to power over the past months, as they have killed hundreds of their own compatriots, and they may well feel that they have come off best in the contest.
The opposition remains incoherent, and does not control significant territory in Syria. It does not offer a well-formed alternative to Al Assad, who therefore feels that he can ride out this storm by holding his nerve and being willing to shoot hundreds more of his fellow Syrians.
This gives Annan's plan very little chance of success, however deserving it might be.
