More than 200 young women have been held captive by Boko Haram in northern Nigeria for more than six months. The lacklustre Nigerian government of Goodluck Jonathan has unexpectedly announced that it has negotiated a ceasefire with Boko Haram and that the abducted schoolgirls will be freed. This has not been confirmed by Boko Haram and the government has previously announced several apparent rescues or release deals for the women only to backtrack when they did not happen. That said, if the 219 girls walk free tomorrow as announced it will be a major success. Their abduction from a school shocked the world, and Boko Haram’s announcement that some were being sold into slavery or marriage was deeply troubling. But ineffectual military action by the Nigerian security forces and lack of government response gave rise to worrying fears that the Nigerian government had just written off the women to their fate.
Jonathan’s government has said that it has negotiated a ceasefire, which obviously has wider implications than a deal over the young women’s freedom. This has not been confirmed by any other source, such as the international forces working with the Nigerians to find the girls and track down Boko Haram, and it would be a concern if Jonathan has given in to Boko Haram on any political or social front. The radical group’s extremism is deeply divisive in multi-cultural and cosmopolitan Nigeria and any agreement to introduce radical Islam as sought by Boko Haram would alienate large numbers of mainstream Muslims in the north as well as the largely Christian south. The announcement of the ceasefire comes just before the Nigerian presidential election campaign, and either Jonathan or his vice-president, Namadi Sambo, will announce a candidacy for February 2015 elections. Their poor economic record in general, and their failure to respond to the Boko Haram atrocity, has attracted several former political heavy weights back into the ring to challenge their authority. The timing is no coincidence because Jonathan wants whatever kind of deal he can get to be able to go into the elections without the stain of his lingering failure over Boko Haram harming his chances of re-election.
