Field Marshal Abdul Fattah Al Sissi’s landslide victory in Egypt’s presidential elections last week has galvanised Libya’s own ‘renegade’ General, Khalifa Haftar, to follow his lead.
Last week, a spokesman for Haftar told the Anatolia news agency that, ‘If the Libyan people ask him to, Haftar will stand for President’. Like Al Sissi, Haftar was at first coy about making a bid for the top job, courting popular demonstrations of support to justify the move.
The two men have much else in common.
First and foremost they have both taken a definitive stand against the Islamists who prevailed via the democratic process in the aftermath of revolutions in the neighbouring countries. Both present the army as the “people’s friend” seeking to implement the true aims of the revolution, and both cast themselves in the mould of the patriarchal Arab “strong men” of the past.
As popular support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt waned, Al Sissi took definitive, punitive and violent action against them; President Mohammad Mursi was swiftly overthrown, paving the way for Al Sissi’s personal rise to power.
Haftar, too, has turned on the Islamist-dominated Tripoli government; last week his forces, backed by the powerful Zintan militia, stormed parliament. The day before, Haftar’s men used warplanes and ground troops for a pre-emptive strike on militias associated with the Muslim Brotherhood in Benghazi.
Many Libyans are disillusioned with the slow progress parliament has made, the endless musical chairs within the political establishment (three prime ministers since March!) and the rise of extremist groups who seek to impose their version of Sharia on local communities and tribes. Although Haftar’s first attempt at a coup in February made him a laughing-stock when nobody backed him up, things have changed. Tripoli’s Green Square has become a barometer of the public mood and thousands now join regular demonstrations in support of Haftar’s strong-arm tactics.
Crucially, Haftar now enjoys the support of several major tribes and army units, including the elite Special Forces; the commander of the biggest Air base at Mobruk has also pledged to join his “Operation Dignity” (a very American moniker); in addition, the Benghazi separatist movement backs Haftar, as do 40 out of 182 parliamentarians.
The chaos in Libya and the rise of Al Qaida-type extremist groups in the country represents a danger to western interests as well as to its neighbours. Western oil conglomerates have jumped ship for the time being and America has ordered its citizens to leave the “unstable and unpredictable” country. No wonder, then, that Haftar enjoys the tacit support of the West — as did Al Sissi — in his fight against “the malignant disease” of militant Islam.
Shifting sides
Al Sissi trained in the West, first at the UK Joint Services Command and Staff College in 1992 and later did a Masters at the US Army War College in Pennsylvania, graduating in 2006. The US has not cut its $1.3 billion (Dh4.8 billion) in military aid to Egypt despite the anti-democratic ouster of Mursi and Al Sissi’s forces’ violence against protesters.
Haftar’s association with the West is by way of a lengthy stay in Langley, Virginia — the home of the CIA. Courting US support, he has sworn to target Ansar Al Sharia in particular among the motley Islamist brigades currently roaming Libya — Ansar Al Sharia assassinated US ambassador Christopher Stevens in 2013.
The neighbouring generals also share an opportunistic ability to seamlessly shift sides, avoiding the troublesome burden of loyalty. Under Mubarak, Al Sissi rose to become Chief of Staff in the Northern Military Zone. After the revolution he was made Head of Military Intelligence. The Mubarak “old guard” stand behind his presidency.
Haftar, meanwhile, has been knocking at both sides of the door to power in Libya for many years. He helped Gaddafi overthrow King Idris in 1969 and was rewarded with the position of Chief of Staff. When Gaddafi disowned him following a botched military adventure in Chad, Haftar turned against his erstwhile brother in arms and, leading the CIA-backed National Salvation Front for Libya, attempted a coup in 1993. During the February 2011 revolution, Haftar’s militia fought alongside Islamist brigades to unseat Gaddafi; now, of course, he is their nemesis.
Adopting the Egyptian template, Haftar has established a ‘Supreme Military Council’ and has branded his coalition of militias ‘The Libyan National Army’. In this way he seeks to create a de facto new administration with himself at the top.
While there are many similarities between these two ambitious elders, there are also significant differences which may see a very different political outcome in Libya. Field Marshal Al Sissi has the support of the Egyptian military establishment — a powerful and deeply-rooted institution with a long history. By contrast, the Libyan army was weakened first by Gaddafi — who feared a coup — and subsequently by post-revolutionary civil conflict which has seen the formation of thousands of rival militias of all religious and political hues and with various external backers.
Haftar’s task will be more demanding than that of his Egyptian counterpart. Al Sissi’s opponents are the largely unarmed Muslim Brotherhood — many of whose leaders are incarcerated — and their supporters. Haftar, however, faces challenges from armed militias, including battle-hardened radical Islamists, separatists, tribes, and the remnants of the former regime. Libya is currently awash with an estimated 50 million weapons.
Perhaps the most significant factor in the Libyan experience is the military intervention by the West which, having succeeded in its primary aim — to topple Gaddafi — left the country in utter chaos. No care was taken to help the politically inexperienced interim regime create a security establishment and the infrastructure for civil society.
Now, in anticipation of the next chapter in the Libyan tragedy, in a move reminiscent of the build-up to the 2011 intervention, the Pentagon has deployed a warship, USS Bataan, with 1,000 troops off the Libyan coast “in case the US Embassy needs to be evacuated”. In addition it has sent nine planes and 250 soldiers to its base in Sicily. Meanwhile, Ansar Al Sharia has threatened to “open the gates of hell” if Haftar continues his assaults on Islamist groups and this will be no idle threat with thousands of heavily armed jihadists at large in the country. There are regional implications here: if the current infighting between powerful extremist groups across the region (particularly in Libya, Syria and Iraq) gave way to common cause, the political landscape could undergo a seismic change.
Haftar’s chances to achieve the power which has eluded him for more than 20 years are better now than they have ever been, but the road to a secure, stable government in Libya is littered with political and logistical landmines.
It will be a very strong man indeed who can oversee the creation and implementation of the new constitution Libya so desperately needs, which answers the vastly different political aspirations of the people, and which incorporates the aims of the revolution, religious requirements and democratic principles.
Without an effective army and a powerful security and law and order apparatus, no regime will be able to rein in the thousands of warring militias, tribes and factions which make national unity an impossible dream.
Is Haftar the man for this task? Only time will tell...
Abdel Bari Atwan is the editor-in-chief of digital newspaper Rai alYoum: http://www.raialyoum.com. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@abdelbariatwan
