It was a sign of wavering American resolve when President Barack Obama admitted last week that “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, we don’t have a strategy yet...” against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) as far as the situation in Syria is concerned. Obama’s inaction a year ago after Bashar Al Assad crossed his red line, emboldened Isil, and his inaction and indecisiveness today is emboldening the group even more. Obama’s call for regional and international coalition to combat Isil comes a little too late. The first anniversary of Al Assad’s August 21, 2013 massacre of his own people through the use of chemical weapons in the suburbs of Damascus — resulting in the deaths of 1,400 innocent civilians including over 400 children — was a stark and painful reminder of how the US and the international community have contributed to this continuing mayhem. Furthermore, it is an indictment of the failed US strategy, which led not only to more carnage, but to upping the ante, by emboldening extremists. This led to the emergence of Isil, and to the collapse of the border between Syria and Iraq.
According to the UN, 191,000 have died in Syria up until April this year. The exact figures are surely much more than that and could exceed 250,000 dead, hundreds of thousands injured, and tens of thousands missing. Besides, 10 million Syrians are displaced inside Syria and 3 million are refugees in neighbouring countries and beyond.
In an ironic twist of fate, Al Assad was able to get away with murder by not being bombed by US cruise missiles for crossing Obama’s red line. With the Russian mediating, he surrendered his chemical weapons and a year later the US boasted that the destruction of these weapons was a “major achievement”. Al Assad was left unscathed, free to continue massacring his own people using conventional weapons, including missiles, air strikes and barrel bombs dropped mercilessly on residential areas, apartment buildings and crowded streets in Aleppo, Dara’a, Homs and Hama. The regime is stopping food from entering besieged cities and the Palestinian camps on the outskirts of Damascus for months, where tens of people died of starvation.
It was sad and hypocritical that this farce was allowed to unfold before the whole world. It was insulting when the same thing happened to the minorities, like Christians and Yazidis, at the hands of Isil and the whole world took notice. The US, Europe and the UN called for military action against Isil! Thus confirming the widely circulated rumour that the whole world is ganging up against Sunni Muslims, even looking the other way when Shiite militants carry out massacres against Sunnis in Iraq. This was the case when Shiite militias massacred over 70 worshippers at a Sunni mosque in Diyala province during Friday prayers on August 22. This policy is making the hardliners even more radical and radicalising the moderates — from Gaza to Syria, from Iraq to Afghanistan and from Pakistan to Yemen.
It was telling that not a single voice in the West was heard demanding that Al Assad be tried as a war criminal or that he has to go. It is ironic today that Al Assad is marketing himself as a partner in combatting the spread of radical Islam. It was Al Assad with his allies, who had instigated and allowed the radicals to flourish by design as a bad alternative to his thuggish and barbaric rule.
Unfortunately, the tragedy of the Syrian saga is not limited to Syria. It has spilled over into Iraq. Al Assad has succeeded in turning the tide against him thanks to the unwavering backing of Russia, but mainly Iran and its Shiite militias — Hezbollah in Lebanon and some in Iraq. Now, there is even talk of the need to solicit his cooperation to fight Isil, the menacing militant group which is formed of hardened warriors from 50 countries, including the US and Europe. With an estimated 12,000 fighters, it is controlling one third of the territory of both Syria and Iraq — an area larger than the UK itself.
According to reports, General Lord Dannatt, the former head of the British armed forces, has demanded that the UK cooperate with Al Assad to confront the threat of Isil. Moreover, General Martin Dempsey, the US Joint Chiefs Chairman, argued that defeating Isil would require addressing “the part of the organisation that resides in Syria, as well as in Iraq”. US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel admitted that Isil’s threat was ‘greater than Al Qaida’. Such assessment is an indictment of Obama’s failed policy in dealing with the crises in the Middle East, which led to the beheading of US photojournalist James Foley by Isil in retaliation against US bombing of their artillery in northern Iraq.
The blunders we are witnessing in the region today are a tribute to the “Obama Doctrine”. The whole region and the US and its allies are reaping the bitter harvest of half-cooked plans, timidity and early American withdrawal from Iraq, indecisiveness in Syria and underestimating Isil. The Obama doctrine shuns military intervention and values diplomacy, which is interpreted by US foes as weakness, and by US allies as lacking credibility and an abdication of leadership.
Hillary Clinton, in a recent interview, seems to blame Obama for the emergence of Isil. Speaking to the Atlantic magazine, she distanced herself from Obama’s foreign policy in her bid to enter the White House in 2016. She dubbed Obama’s foreign policy mantra “Don’t do stupid stuff” as a failure, and a big reason why the Middle East erupted in Isil violence”. She argued in the interview, “Great nations need organising principle, and “Don’t do stupid stuff” is not an organising principle”. Clinton, as Washington Times reported, “called out Obama’s ‘failure’ to arm Syrian rebels in the early days of their uprising against Al Assad — which she tried to persuade him to do”.
This blistering critique coincided with “recent polls showing Obama’s popularity rating having fallen to around 40 per cent, with a majority of Americans viewing his foreign policy as weak and ineffective”. It is hoped that the Obama administration will draw sobering lessons from this bitter harvest!
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. He is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Center in George Washington University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji
