To any astute political observer, the presence and influence of the two narratives running parallel and shaping the course of political events in Pakistan at present is clearly headed towards the attainment of two objectives: exercise of control and change by the use of force.
The dominant narrative at this time is the intra-political tensions that have reached a critical point rendering the one-year-old government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appear helpless as he faces what is being described as his biggest challenge in street power. The fact that this challenge is from the combined forces of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Awami Tehrik’s Maulana Tahirul Qadri, who are demanding nothing less than Sharif’s resignation, also denotes a change in Pakistan’s political dynamics. With Islamabad and Punjab’s provincial capital, Lahore, virtually under siege the government’s initial panicked reaction does not bode well for its image, lending further credence to Sharif’s weakening grip on power. Even while the government is justified in citing the security threat, especially now while the North Waziristan military offensive Zarb-e-Azb is underway, the tactics employed up to August 14 have been to prevent Khan’s PTI from mobilising followers for the Azadi March that converged yesterday on Islamabad.
Unfortunately, Sharif’s offer for talks and formation of a three-member Judicial Committee to probe alleged election rigging charges on Tuesday was rejected by Khan. Admittedly, the offer came late but it may have been prudent for Khan to drop his maximalist position when offered an olive branch. He chose not to take it. As a result what we have is a democratically elected prime minister enjoying absolute majority in parliament, being asked to resign a year after election based on allegations of rigging in some constituencies in Punjab. Besides, there are other reasons why Khan wants Sharif to step down, which include his government’s poor economic performance, rampant nepotism and corruption. Surprisingly, Khan did not share the above sentiments for the previous Pakistan Peoples Party government spearheaded by former president Asif Ali Zardari, which completed its five-year tenure setting new records in corruption and pathetic governance. Additionally, Khan’s refusal to trust any committee or investigation under Sharif and his direct allegations of involvement in abetting rigging of senior judiciary members does not leave any doubt about his lack of trust in the judiciary. So the end game Khan is gearing for is a regime change by force, one he cannot wait for until the next election nor one he can hope to bring about by a vote of no confidence in the parliament. Unless he manages to get other political parties on board.
But if the regime change he hopes by some miracle to achieve by staging his sit-in or by the entry of a third force (read the army) to quell the unrest that is bound to be created if clashes occur between his and his newly found ally Maulana Qadri’s and the government security apparatus, the ensuing chaos could only mean one thing — further instability.
Despite the Lahore High Court’s short order on Wednesday prohibiting any march to Islamabad and the sit in, both Khan’s Azadi March and Qadri’s Inqelab (Revolution) March set off for the capital, at the time of writing. Wisely, the government allowed them to proceed to another point outside the Red Zone in the city to culminate the procession. But it remains to be seen if they’d be allowed to stage a sit in and for how long. This will also depend on a number of factors, pivotal of which is how peaceful the protests remain and this is something Khan and Qadri need to ensure at their end.
The second underlying narrative and one that cannot be ignored is that of the civil-military power struggle. Tensions between Sharif and the military have reached a point when the prime minister is openly questioning the forces behind the long marches of Khan and Qadri.
As for Sharif, he does not seem to have learnt from his past mistakes. There is a limit to blatant exercise of power in handling institutions, especially the military. His innate arrogance has cost him dearly in the past as well in his dealings with the army and the Supreme Court. It was hoped that he would be more diplomatic in handling the jugular this time around.
Valuable lesson
Of course as prime minister, Sharif has every right to exercise his power as chief executive under the constitution but things do not happen by the book in that part of the world. That is a valuable lesson for all political stakeholders. What is needed is a conscious effort to manage things with deft diplomacy considering the slow and steady shift in the army to consciously steer away from interference in civilian political matters.
But the fact remains that despite stepping back the military continues to influence power politics and any action that is seen as an affront on the institution whether it is the treason case against former president General Pervez Musharraf with whom Sharif has an axe to grind or not supporting the military enough as in the case of the Geo/News International group’s targeting of the ISI in a smear campaign and which culminated in Geo blaming the intelligence outfit and its chief for the assassination attempt on journalist Hamid Mir, are not taken lightly. Cumulative grievances may have added to this unease between Sharif and the army notwithstanding the fact that the new army chief General Raheel Sharif was selected by the prime minister.
The ruling party’s ministers for one have been issuing statements linking the government’s refusal to ease Musharraf’s treason charges and allowing him an exit with the present turmoil. In other words, it is the army that is behind Khan and Qadri’s latest adventurism.
Put under pressure
This leads us to the question, is the army wanting to take over the reins again by setting in motion events that would by default give way to anarchy and get the tanks rolling in on Constitution Avenue? In all probability Sharif’s government has been put under pressure even if the army was involved in encouraging Khan and getting Qadri to arrive for another revolution. But martial law is another ball game. With Operation Zarb-e-Azb underway it would make life very difficult for General Sharif to direct Islamabad as well as the GHQ.
Khan’s government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is yet to show attainment of objectives in youth unemployment, education and health. Instead of focusing on improving performance in KPK, Khan’s main objective now is toppling Sharif’s government at the centre. His circle of demands for recounting of votes have now gotten wider to include resignation of the prime minister, holding of fresh elections, getting rid of Sharif’s corrupt network and revamping of economic policies.
As far as mobilisation of youth is concerned, both Qadri and Khan appeal to the country’s masses who have after years of broken promises and misery under successive governments reached the end of their tether. It is only natural that unless the government is able to show visible results in bringing a change and offering them opportunities they will support Khan who offers an untested third alternative, at least on the national front. His government’s performance in this sector in KPK is not something the youth are likely to question when they are fed by hopes of miracles after Sharif is toppled. As far as Qadri is concerned for many he is the prodigal son of the soil who prefers to scuttle back to his new homeland in Canada after thunderous shows at home and unrealised revolutions. His endless resources to fund his protests and sit-ins and fiery speeches however have been successful in mobilising thousands of youth frenzied enough to lay their lives down for him. As far as political significance is concerned, he earned some after the killing of some of his followers in June in Lahore thanks to the mismanagement of the provincial government. He is an irritant no doubt and one the government is now wary of.
Sharif’s third tenure has been riddled from day one by a number of challenges he seems unable to comprehend. Instead of responding in a befitting manner denoting political maturity the government has instead managed to exacerbate tensions. The prime minister himself seems at a loss, his absences and non-involvement in critical decision making till the eleventh hour have proved detrimental. As a result the current political morass has descended on us at a time when we as a nation should have stood together to pledge commitment to rise above existing differences and take our country forward. And it is with heavy hearts that we suffer this political hysteria at a time when we should have been celebrating the gift of independence. It is feared that the clear lapse of judgement among all political stakeholders as far as gauging the situation was concerned and on devising a strategy to address any grievances may cost the country and plunge it into a new phase of turmoil — unless cooler heads prevail.
— Faryal Leghari is a former Deputy Opinion Editor of Gulf News.
