In relative terms 2013 has been a good year for Jordan, compared to the previous two. Anti-government protests had declined dramatically as the national mood shifted following regional developments in Syria and Egypt, prompting pundits to conclude that Jordan’s Arab Spring was over. The country held two national elections in 2013, one for the legislature and the other for municipalities. And as a result of executing a number of subsidy reforms, which triggered violent protests in November of last year, the national treasury avoided bankruptcy and the government was able to secure part of an important multi-million-dollar loan from the IMF. Also, it was able to issue government bonds worth $1.2 billion (Dh4.4 billion) that was guaranteed by the US government. In addition, the flow of Syrian refugees into Jordan was stemmed through strict border control keeping the number of refugees below the critical one million mark.
But the sense of relaxation by the regime could prove temporary. Jordan faces four major challenges, at least, in 2014. The realisation of one or more of these challenges could easily push the country back into crisis mode, triggering national protests and reuniting the opposition. These challenges are:
The economy
The government has recently unveiled the 2014 national budget, which in spite of austerity measures is more the 10 per cent larger than the previous one. It is a controversial budget, which will face a month-long debate in parliament, because it will increase the national foreign debt burden to an unprecedented $30 billion, or about 84 per cent of the national domestic product for next year. The proposed budget will have a whopping $3 billion deficit which will be covered through local and international borrowing in addition to grants. According to experts the cost of servicing the national debt has been rising exponentially over the last three years by 35 per cent annually, and it will comprise over 24 per cent of the 2014 budget. The irony, in the view of economists, is that most of the borrowing, at commercial rates, will go to cover current expenditures in the budget and not for capital investments. This means that the government will have little funds to fulfil its promise of combating Jordan’s endemic poverty, unemployment, which officially stands at 14 per cent but is much higher among the youth, and inflation problems.
The government has been unable to solve the problem of over 60 independent corporations which consume over one third of the national budget. It says that it cannot reduce salaries or introduce major cuts in the civil service. It plans to push on with its subsidy reform programme, which means that the prices of essential goods and services, including water and electricity, will rise again in 2014. It expects the budget deficit to shrink by 2016. But until then most Jordanians will feel the pressure and this may unleash anti-government protests at a time when support for the government is at a historic low.
Syrian refugee problem
Although government and international agencies’ estimates of the number of Syrian refugees in the country vary, both agree that there are at least 120,000 refugees at Al Zaatari camp in the northern governorate of Al Mafraq. The government believes there are an additional 700,000 Syrians residing in the country, while the United Nations estimates that the total number of Syrian refugees in Jordan is around 600,000. Minister of Finance Dr Umayyah Touqan announced earlier last month that the total cost of hosting these refugees in 2013 and 2014 will reach $5 billion, which is much higher than estimated. The minister said Jordan will need these funds to provide additional infrastructure such as schools and hospitals in addition to food, water, health services and electricity.
The presence of Syrians has burdened the national budget and created social tension in Al Mafraq where the number of refugees exceeds the population of the governorate which is battling high unemployment among its residents. Al Zaatari refugee camp has become Jordan’s fourth largest population centre and there are plans to open a second camp in Al Azraq region. Pundits have warned that the presence of so many refugees will exacerbate the economic conditions while posing security challenges for the government. As there are no signs that a political solution on the Syrian conflict will be reached soon, Jordan will have to cope with the burden of hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees for years to come.
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks
Jordan has a vested interest in the outcome of the final status negotiations, even though the prospects of reaching a deal remain dim. The deadline for concluding talks is in the spring of next year, but Israel’s position on Palestinian right of return may prove to be a deal breaker. The fate of Palestinian refugees, the status of occupied East Jerusalem and Israel’s presence in the Jordan Valley are among the key issues that Amman will be nervously watching. A settlement that does not guarantee the right of return for Palestinian refugees will have dire political consequences on Jordan, which hosts the largest number estimated at 2 million. The future of these refugees has been one of the major triggers of political tension between East Jordanians and Jordanians of Palestinian origin. In addition, Jordan is keen to maintain its role as custodian of Muslim and Christian religious sites in occupied East Jerusalem. Recently, Jordan has been critical of Israeli attempts to allow prayers in the vicinity of Al Aqsa mosque. King Abdullah had described Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem as “playing with fire.”
Upcoming political reforms
King Abdullah has reiterated his commitment to carrying out major political reforms in the country. Recently he called on deputies to address important amendments to key laws, including the controversial election law. Previous initiatives to introduce a progressive formula that deals with the thorny issues of representation and citizenship had failed. The conservative element in the country will resist attempts to introduce a new law that adopts proportional representation and gives urban areas such as Amman and Zerqa more deputies in the legislature. In addition the regime is yet to redefine its relationship with the country’s main political opposition, the Islamists, in the wake of developments in Egypt and Syria.
The Islamists, though weakened and less popular than before, continue to challenge the regime, calling for legal and constitutional reforms as a condition for their participation in the political process. After years of exclusion the question now is will the regime choose to reconcile them?
These are four realistic challenges that Jordan will face in 2014 — in addition to fighting official corruption, societal violence and lawlessness in some areas — which could recharge the public mood, unite the opposition and re-launch popular protests.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
