Is Isil in Iraq a gun-for-hire?

Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki was taken by surprise, even though he was warned time-and-time again about the perils of neglecting the Sunni community and shutting Sunnis out of government — or was he? How on earth was a ragtag bunch of 800-1,000 terrorists capable of taking over Iraq’s second largest city Mosul, home to almost two million people, with such swiftness and ease? Why did government troops and police simply remove their uniforms and walk off into the sunset without putting up a fight. And why wouldn’t parliamentarians form a quorum to impose emergency laws when this situation is the biggest emergency since 2003? Curiously, a senior commander in Saddam Hussain’s military was released from jail to supervise the fightback.

Militants under the umbrella of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) operating against the regime in Syria, basically strolled in, told residents to carry on with their lives as normal and promptly grabbed tanks, helicopters and heavy weaponry that the soldiers had left behind, as well as cash from the banks. Some of those made-in-the-USA arms are believed to be on their way to Syria. Others will be used en route to their ultimate goal — Baghdad.

The international community was initially discombobulated after being thrown such a curved ball, potentially impacting the entire region. Iraq’s ambassador to the United Nations asked for immediate assistance, but as usual, the body with the responsibility of dealing with such crises is impotent. The US, which caused all this mess by invading Iraq on a pack of lies, disbanding its army and barring former Baathists from jobs in the government, is now rushing to the rescue — or, precisely speaking, to do what it does best, drop bombs.

Nato’s ambassadors held an emergency meeting at Turkey’s request, but they have declared there is no role for the alliance — unsurprising when their previous adventure in Libya delivered disaster? Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is issuing threats with his usual bluster, but appears in no hurry to join the fray, even though the Turkish embassy in Mosul is occupied by Isil fighters who have taken over 120 Turkish citizens hostage, including diplomats.

Then there is Iran. President Hassan Rouhani pledged that Iran will combat the “violence and terrorism” of armed Sunni organisations and has sent brigades of Revolutionary Guards to defend Iraq’s capital and Shiite shrines. However, Iranian military intervention in Iraq could end up being a minefield with a host of unpleasant unintended consequences.

Iranians stomping over an Arab country will not play well with Iran’s Sunni neighbours. Secondly, unless Tehran can extract the West’s blessing, it can kiss goodbye to the idea of detente with the US and Europe that would bring hoped-for relief from crippling sanctions. Thirdly, the sight of Iranian aircraft in the sky dropping bombs would elicit unpleasant memories of the eight-year-long Iraq-Iran War. Iraqi Sunnis would unite and, in the absence of an alternative, they will be queuing to aid Isil’s push. That said, many, including Sunni tribes in Anbar, already are.

Push forward

According to reports, Saddam’s former vice-president Izzat Ebrahim Al Douri has emerged from the woodwork along with other former Baathists to join Isil’s push forward under the banner of the Naqshabandi Army. This is giving rise to theories that Isis, the wealthiest Jihadist group, represents a gun-for-hire in Iraq, funded by unseen players out to free the country from Shiite dominance. Certainly, Isil in Iraq is displaying its mellow side compared to its record in northern Syria where its vicious actions have caused even Al Qaida boss Ayman Al Zawahiri to keep his distance.

And, whereas in Mosul, Isil is positioning itself as the saviour of disenfranchised Sunnis and, thus far, has refrained from harming the civilian population, in Syria, it is infamous for chopping off heads and hands, torturing and crucifying those refusing to abide by its rules, forcing women to wear the niqab and banning smoking. The stated ambitions of Isil is to create an Islamist state stretching from northern Iraq to northern Syria as a precursor to a wider Islamist caliphate. But if that is so, then its attempts to take Baghdad are extraneous to its core mission.

Many questions will remain unanswered in the short term, but what is sure is that the ones laughing are the Kurds who have seized the opportunity to snatch the disputed oil-rich province of Kirkuk, slated to form part of an eventual autonomous Kurdish state — and one of Saddam’s daughters who has congratulated “Uncle Izzat,” adding, she was “looking forward to going home”. That sentiment is premature. With jihadists, remnants of Saddam’s former military, American bombers, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Shiite volunteers, Kurdish Peshmergas and Iraq’s apology-for-an army mixing it up in an unholy rumble, will there be a home to go back to?

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com