You can bet your last dollar that it was not the ravaging civil war, now going on since December 2013, that was on peoples’ minds when they witnessed the birth of their new South Sudan state on July 9, 2011. The situation became so bad that it warranted an external organisation — with representation in Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia — to act as a mediator and get the country out of its bleeding mess.
Today, it is the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (Igad) that is ceaselessly trying to reestablish political dialogue between the different warring factions in a country that is being dubbed as the poorest in Africa despite its extensive oil resources, fertile land and abundant water but all three still need to be developed. That is possible if the fighting stops and the building work begins. When the negotiations for independence took place and the eventual referendum on it was held in January 2011, 70 per cent of the oil was in what became South Sudan.
At the heart of the problem in South Sudan is the government of President Salva Kiir and leader of the rebel group Riek Machar who, at one point of time, was the vice-president of the new state. He was kicked out of office along with the rest of the cabinet in July 2013 by Kiir who, on December 15 of the same year, accused his former deputy of plotting a coup against him and igniting a civil war. This sparked violence between the soldiers and the supporters of both the leaders.
It was like a phoenix rising from the ashes — re-emergence of the old Sudan, one characterised by continuous civil wars since its independence from the British in 1956. Under old Sudan, including its undivided southern part, more than three million people died — two million since 1983, at the start of the country’s second civil war. Today, unfortunately, the same old story is being revisited. This time, however, the civil war involves factions from the same ruling party, the Sudan Popular Liberation Movement (SPLM), which was sharply split with Machar referring to his faction as the SPLM In Opposition.
Total cost in terms of human lives is huge. Despite its relatively short life thus far, the current civil war has proved to be bloody and lethal. According to conservative estimates, the violence has so far resulted in the death of 10,000 people. Government forces and rebels fighting each other has led many to flee the towns and villages and as a result, internal displacement figures now stand at 1.5 million, with 100,000 seeking shelter in United Nations makeshift camps. Not to mention the fact that about 1,000 people are fleeing to neighbouring states daily.
What is shameful and frustrating is that the fighting started just after independence. The country’s tribal system was split along religious lines between Christians and those following the traditional, local religions. Superimposed on this are the two main tribes, the Dinka and Neur, and the 60-odd minority tribes. Kiir comes from Dinka while Machar belongs to Naur. Once the politics between the two men became strained, the bitter feelings percolated to the tribes who became involved in the civil war.
It is violence that has brought in the Igad to try for a patch-up. After months of efforts, aside from the fact that the warring factions continuously reneged on their previous commitments to shake hands, a near-deal was reached at the end of last month titled ‘Protocol on Agreed Principles on Transitional Arrangements Towards Resolution on the Crises in South Sudan’. This was signed in Addis Ababa. Many are pleased and say that this is a workable accord for 30 months, that needs to be followed up by a final status agreement.
However, others, mainly from the rebel sides, are still unhappy, especially since the additional post of prime minister from their side — which the protocol pencils in — is only for the duration of the transitional period and has been left for final negotiations to give it a concrete shape.
Kiir, on the other hand, is more than happy because he retains the post of President, which is due to end in 2015. The accord gives him more time.
The Igad is expecting negotiations to continue sometimes this month. The present instability has come to mean that all planning for development has come to a halt for now as all resources on both sides of the divide are being pressed into service for the ongoing strife and many feel that the country is fast slipping into an abyss. According to UN experts, four to five million people are already facing starvation with the country bordering on famine — the worst since the one experienced in Ethiopia nearly 30 years ago. This is indeed an irony of fate. As a unified country, in the 1970s and 1980s, Sudan was known as the breadbasket of the Arab world. If only the World Bank had allowed it to remain so!
Marwan Asmar is a commentator based in Amman. He has long worked in journalism and has a Phd in Political Science from Leeds University in the United Kingdom.
