It has become abundantly clear in the past week that Pakistan is heading towards an inevitable military campaign against the Taliban in the north Waziristan region along the border with Afghanistan. The fight, though a continuation of the battle that has raged across Pakistan for more than a decade, carries the potential of unleashing the bloodiest backlash in the country’s history. Yet, it is a battle not just for the survival of Pakistan’s territory — parts of which have been taken away by the Taliban, it is a fight that will decide the fate of Pakistan’s way of life since its creation in 1947 under the liberal minded leadership of the late Mohammad Ali Jinnah.
The proverbial final nail in the coffin which killed the already slim prospects for peace came in the past week with the killing of 23 Pakistan army soldiers who were in Taliban custody. The brutality of the event was so striking that a Pakistan government minister had to publicly concede the usually unpalatable; even Pakistan’s past prisoners in the custody of India — the country’s main foe, have never been treated in a similar manner. According to a claim from a Taliban commander, the killings were in revenge for their comrades who were killed in military attacks. For the Pakistani state, it has become effectively impossible to concede to the demands of the Taliban who are in fact seeking to enforce their way of life upon the rest of Pakistan. Though some confusion reigns supreme over exactly what are the fundamental demands from the Taliban, suggestions of the Taliban seeking the enforcement of Sharia have only compounded the fear. In Pakistan’s constitution signed by most of the frontline political groups in 1973, Islam has clearly been defined as the guiding principle for affairs of the state. That said, the Taliban’s insistence upon an additional enforcement of Sharia clearly risks unravelling the hard-earned consensus which became the basis of that constitution. And judging by the history of Afghanistan — the only country ever ruled by the Taliban, what remains of Pakistan’s spirit of tolerance will easily become the fodder of history’s dustbin if they ever take charge of the country. But there are other fundamentally vital issues that remain central to Pakistan’s future as it rises to meet the coming challenge.
Civil-military ties
First and foremost, the future of relations between Pakistan’s ruling politicians and the country’s armed forces remain central to Pakistan’s emerging future. In recent months since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif won a landslide electoral victory in May 2013, the discussion over civil-military ties has led the debate over Pakistan’s future. To some, the worst case scenario built around a breakdown of civil-military ties is rooted in Pakistan’s history. The very fact that the influential army has ruled Pakistan for almost half of its life as an independent state, clearly creates an inherent risk in the way Pakistan is set to evolve. Yet, Sharif’s handling of this crucial area will seal the fate of coming events. An added complication on this front appears to be Sharif’s continuing obsession over prosecuting the former military ruler general Pervez Musharraf, who led a coup in 1999 that forced Sharif out of power. Today, the odds may appear to be against Musharraf. He is confined to an army-run cardiac hospital in Rawalpindi.
For the moment, it is far from clear if a smooth end to this saga is indeed the writing on the wall. If indeed Musharraf is prosecuted and sentenced under the charges that he faces, Pakistan’s internal divisions will likely sharpen further.
The build-up to Musharraf’s trial has clearly reinforced the impression that this could not have been a more inopportune time for such an undertaking, either for Pakistan or for its influential army. Imagine the nightmare confronting senior army commanders who are made to cope with demoralised officers and troops following a conviction of their former chief, and that too on debatable charges. Second, for Sharif and other key members of the ruling structure, the blowback from an anti-Taliban campaign will have to be managed while also tackling the many key challenges surrounding Pakistan. At a time when the economy remains increasingly dysfunctional, many Pakistanis clearly have reason to be find fault with the government’s yet to succeed economic policies. This follows the trends that have appeared since Sharif took charge of Pakistan.
Once a popular leader for Pakistan’s business community, Sharif’s profile has clearly taken a hit. To his critics, Sharif’s diminishing profile on this front have been underlined by one set of policy failure after another. The failure to revive Pakistan’s economy has only made Sharif the target of scepticism among businessmen who once saw in him a saviour for their own interests. Tragically, while many of Pakistan’s pro-democracy activists would like to give Sharif the benefit of doubt, he doesn’t have the luxury of time on his side. The battle against the Taliban can obviously not be delayed in view of the serious risk to the country’s security interests. Given that members of the ruling structure only have the choice to step up to the challenges they face, they are clearly running out of time and rapidly so.
Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.
