On September 19, Gulf News published a report on a meeting held in Moscow between General Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In one of my previous articles, I had discussed UAE’s $5 billion (Dh18.39 billion) investment in Russia, particularly in the area of infrastructure. The investments were a key part of the visit and it was the second meeting between officials of these two states this year. Shaikh Mohammad’s visit to Russia was preceded by an important visit to Egypt, which aimed to open the doors for Egypt-Russia relations.
Egypt, as we all know, is considered a key regional player in the Arab world, while Russia, after having undergone a tough time with the collapse of the Soviet Union, was able to successfully stand strong against the chaos that ensued following the Perestroika reforms. Russia was then able to carry out a transition phase of rebuilding the country from a national perspective to ensure that it remains a key regional player for former Soviet Union countries.
Also in that article, I had spoken about how the agreement signed between Cairo and Abu Dhabi was successful after both capitals boosted bilateral relations to very high levels, following the June 30 uprising, in which the Egyptian people were able to oust the Muslim Brotherhood by rallying around the Egyptian army, which made it easy to absolve religious parties and prohibit their political activities in Egypt.
The effects of the visit between Shaikh Mohammad and President Putin are slowly surfacing. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, visited Egypt last month to discuss a high-level agenda pertaining to military and economic aspects, as well as some political dossiers. The military aspect of the visit was not revealed until the second week of November, when a number of foreign newspapers and news agencies, such as the New York Times and Reuters, published a story on Russia providing Egypt with the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. The system can intercept ballistic missiles, and more importantly, it is also capable of engaging US cruise missiles.
Moreover, the Egyptian-Russian portfolio seems to include many other projects and agreements in various fields. These agreements are expected to be unveiled soon. Egypt’s opening up to the East is expected, considering the current state of affairs.
It is also natural for the UAE not to abandon Egypt during a very difficult and critical time in the country’s modern history. It is not strange for the UAE to throw its economic and political weight behind a new Egypt that is striving to stand on its own feet, overlooking its former western allies and looking forward to forging new alliances with Russia in today’s new multipolar world. The UAE is seeking to help open the door to better relations between Egypt and Russia. By doing so, Egypt will be immune to any shock that can hinder its focus on quickly overcoming the current troublesome situation created by the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the UAE’s strategic goal, which is depending on its long-standing political experience in the Arab and regional political stage to help Egypt move forward.
What is happening in Egypt at present will have many repercussions on its strategic relations with allies on various levels. Even the US, Egypt’s staunch ally, is unnerved by the rapid changes in the country. The US suspended some military aid to Egypt and threatened to freeze its $1.2 billion (Dh4.41 billion) annual aid, which is much less than the aid provided by the US to Israel.
On the US rectifying its political assessment of the June 30 revolution, the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said the youths’ January 25 revolution was stolen by the single-most organised entity in the state — the Muslim Brotherhood. The US was basically stating its support for the June 30 corrective revolution and the role played by the Egyptian army. The US then proceeded to provide Egypt with warships as part of a deal that was previously agreed upon. These rapid developments are the result of the US closely monitoring Egypt and its openness to Russia, which may eventually be followed by Egypt opening up to China and India.
Elsewhere, Turkey bemoaned the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and according to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Turkey refuses to stop interfering in the affairs of the country. The visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow included discussions on the Egyptian dossier, which, perhaps, is currently deemed even more important than the Syrian dossier. Erdogan knew that he and Putin would disagree on the Syrian issue and ways to resolve it, but he was certain that he could reach a breakthrough in Russia’s views regarding what is happening in military-led Egypt by providing Putin with the perspective of Turkey and other religious parties in the region. Therefore, Erdogan will at least succeed in slowing down the execution of agreements between Russia and Egypt, particularly in the defence sector.
It is only natural to expect relations between Ankara and Cairo to deteriorate even further, which will in turn impact relations between Turkey and some Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Leaked reports on Russia’s desire to provide Egypt with S-300 missile system even prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Moscow. After all, Israel previously succeeded in delaying a deal to provide Syria with the same system in return for remaining neutral on matters related to Syria, or at least not intervening until the outcome is decided in the inter-fighting taking place in this key part of the world.
Is it possible that Russia will comply? It is unlikely, as there is a big difference between Syria and Egypt from Russia’s strategic perspective. Egypt is the centre of the Arab world and any country that can establish a strong footing on its geopolitical map will become an influential player.
Mohammad Hassan Al Harbi is a writer and journalist.
