The visit by US President Barack Obama to the small Baltic state of Estonia and his pledge that Nato will defend it against any attack is an escalation of the Cold War between the West and Russia. The war is beginning to heat up, following the Ukrainian crisis, which stimulated Russian President Valdimir Putin’s appetite enough for him to bite on some of his neighbours.

The tension between the West and Russia is on the rise. In an area that saw a severe conflict arise between the West and the Soviet Union in the 1950s, ‘60s, and ‘70s, we are witnessing the emergence of a lava pit on which two opposing sides stand. The West is looking to return to the Middle East, using Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) as a pretext for an unprecedented military campaign by rallying an international coalition comprising 40 nations, except Russia and its allies, to end Daesh’s presence in Syria and Iraq.

Russia has many reservations regarding the international coalition, especially when its objectives are to target areas in which Daesh is present, which includes Syria, an ally that Russia fears for. Iran has sided with Russia in its reservations over the coalition and its objectives, especially after Obama received approval from the US Congress to allocate $500 million (Dh1.83 billion) for training 5,000 Syrian rebels. Ever since the Sykes-Picot agreement, the Middle East has witnessed various forms of instability due to huge defects in the structures of prevailing regimes in some countries and the relations between these countries. These defects came to light as a result of ideological and demographic changes in various areas over the past century that used religion, ethnicity, culture, sects and zones as a basis. Another cause is the gradual decline in the influence of some of the world’s powers over these countries.

Some traditional regimes in the region that have prevailed in the past century are on the brink of collapse. The alternatives to these regimes are not yet ready to be introduced and it will not be a smooth process. The current balance is worrying to a very large extent and it will not be easy to reorganise the internal political conditions of some countries without direct international supervision.

When the US called for a new Middle East during the era of former president George Bush and continued to promote an initiative of change during the term of US President Barack Obama, it supported the Arab Spring and deserted its strategic allies. This allowed for an emptiness to emerge in the political arena, which was then filled by various types of religious organisations. These organisations are based on ideologies that were, and still are, in ideological and political disagreement, which led to armed conflicts in some areas.

This is how the fragile balance became even more frail and unstable, which does not benefit the people, but rather a regional power that diligently worked and planned on destroying the prevailing regional regimes and put in place signs and indicators for a new regime that does not necessarily translate into more freedom for the people and achieving their ambitions. These new regimes actually increased the influence of regional power and created an environment for the emergence of radical militia organisations with a sectarian-religious basis and whose power exceeds that of armies.

The West’s return to the region will undoubtedly require the US to make some critical decisions during its military campaign that may in turn hinder the movement of the entire international coalition. It is no longer a secret that there seems to be a disagreement between the US military and the President on whether combat troops should be used in some phases of the campaign against Daesh, which some military specialists have deemed as necessary. This option was rejected by Obama. The problem is that Obama insists on playing the role of a dove, at a time when he is supposed to take notice of a hawk that needs to be dealt with and is his adversary: Putin.

The size and power of Daesh does not necessitate the formation of an international coalition and the media’s exaggeration of Daesh’s capabilities serves a goal that far exceeds the destruction of the organisation. The West is determined to return to the Middle East because it strongly believes that the time is ripe for a change in the regional regime and it wants to play a part in this process to satiate its voracious appetite for the region’s natural resources. Therefore, it will not give up its role as an approver of the new regime.

The West is also relying on the legitimacy of the coalition, the fact that a majority of countries in the region are welcoming its creation and the official call for help made by the Iraqi government. It is also taking advantage of how long it will take for the coalition to complete its mission, a duration that has yet to be determined. The West is keen on ensuring that the collapse of some regimes in the region will not impact traditional relations with Europe and the US or affect the political and economic relations of the countries in the region with Europe and the US.

The international coalition formed to defend Iraq, whose army failed to stand up to Daesh, is the biggest proof that the Iraqi issue is being internationalised after its political powers failed for 11 years to come up with a solution that restores the country’s stability.

Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.