‘Obama dispatches his foreign minister to the Middle East to coordinate the fight against Isil’, ‘Obama asks his defence minister to prepare options to face Isil’, ‘Obama says he does not have a military strategy to face Isil’ and ‘Nato declares its readiness to intervene militarily in Iraq and Britain raises the level of security readiness to the highest level in anticipation of terrorist operations’.
These headlines are often read and heard in news bulletins today and tell the story of a new phobia called Isil (the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) which is a militant organisation that rose suddenly and has imposed itself as a major player in the Middle East, threatening most of its governments — especially in Syria and Iraq. It is doubtful that the armed forces in these two countries— amidst the current prevailing political circumstances — are able to face this organisation, as pointed out by Iraqi President Fouad Ma’soum.
Terrorism in the Middle East is a phenomenon that the West has coexisted with for a long time. Moreover, terrorism did not worry the region as much as it caused them headaches because these countries were not targeted primarily. Al Qaida dominated terrorism and its goals were in the US and Europe mainly. However, the scene began to change after the American invasion of Iraq, where kidnappings, explosive belts, car bombs and guns started claiming the lives of Iraqis. The terror threat was exacerbated after the outbreak of the revolution in Syria, where the political climate was fertile enough for the birth of powerful terrorist organisations. However, that was still not enough to mobilise the West as long as the operations carried out by these organisations were far from the US and Europe on the one hand and as long as they did not threaten the security of systems allied to the West on the other hand.
Alarm bells
But since Isil’s successes in Syria and Iraq, the equation has changed and terrorism in the Middle East has since transformed into a global security issue worrying Europe dramatically, especially after Isil managed to lure several European citizens to join its ranks. Alarm bells have sounded in the West and there is an unprecedented mobilisation of its diplomatic, political, military, intelligence and security capabilities to face the Isil threat. US President Barack The number of British nationals fighting in Isil’s ranks in Iraq and Syria has exceeded 500 people as stated by Gordon Brown, former British Prime Minister, while German intelligence estimates that at least four hundred Germans have joined the organisation.Obama called for the establishment of an active international coalition for the region’s countries to take part in — one that will be led by Washington. However, he declared at the same time that the US does not have a strategy to deal with Isil, arousing great criticism from Republican critics. The truth is that the US has lacked a coherent strategy in its foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. The truth is that the West’s concern does not stop at the militant movements and Isil particularly in the Middle East, but the risk beyond that in South East Asia, where other similar movements are active. In Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in terms of population, there are militant movements that may reactivate their operations at any time, inspired by Isil victories that are more popular and attractive than others because of the rigour and brutality characterised by their intense practices.
The international coalition will not include the Syrian regime because there is Western consensus against considering the Bashar Al Assad regime as a partner in the fight against terrorism. This alliance needs a huge amount of support and funding. This issue is of a large degree of importance because the expenses of this war will be astronomical and should be shouldered by countries in the region. However, some of these countries may not be able to pay the costs. The West will present to this alliance organisational, intelligence, air strike capabilities and some of its troops may take part in limited operations. But a long-term war requires the existence of a military base or more on the ground and this is what is expected to happen. Perhaps the Kurdish region will be the preferred place for that, and not objected to by the province as the Kurds will regard these bases as a security guarantee. Nato’s acquiring of a footing in the region may be a part of a long-term strategy drawn to suit the requirements of the new phase of the western-Russian conflict, which has escalated with the worsening of the Ukrainian crisis and Nato’s formation of a rapid intervention force to face that.
Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
