In what many believe was a rash and uncalculated decision by the departing British Prime Minister, David Cameron, to call for a referendum on his country’s membership of the European Union that resulted in a Brexit vote, an earthquake is shaking the UK and the EU with reverberations reaching across the Atlantic and beyond.
A British historian and constitutional expert described the Brexit vote as “a huge geopolitical shift”. Lord Peter Hennessey, the Atlee Professor of contemporary British history at Queen Mary University in London, went on to say the only thing comparable “is the end of the British Empire”.
What Hennessey meant is, one would assume, the huge impact the Brexit vote is going to have on Britain’s fortune and British individuals, businesses, economy and lifestyle in the immediate and medium terms. The effects of this colossal vote were instant, unlike the impact of the demise of the Empire, which went on for many years. What happened in the early hours of Friday, June 24, was simply like a knockout in a boxing match, which will change the British way of life for years to come. The changes after the end of British Empire were slow and gradual.
I have been writing and reporting from London since the early 1970s and have never seen anything like it. What happened on June 23 is extraordinarily unprecedented. Extracting the UK from the EU, shockingly, seemed a lot easier than getting the country into Europe, despite the struggle its various political leaders had to exercise in order to join the European common project. It took the country at least a decade of trying to hand its application to join and failing miserably. Harold Macmillan conservative government was the first to initiate his country’s attempts in July 1961 to join what was then known as the European Economic Community (EEC). He failed because French President Charles de Gaulle vehemently opposed the application. The late French president never trusted the British and always looked down on its empire. He famously stated when refusing the application: “England is not much anymore.”
Britain’s Labour government of Harold Wilson lodged the second application in 1967 saying he wouldn’t take no for an answer. But that is exactly what he got from De Gaulle: a clear-cut no. He issued a clear warning to his country’s five partners in the EEC (West Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg), that if they tried to enforce the British application on France it would break up the community.
France’s opposition to British attempts to join the Common Market continued for more than ten years and the way for Britain to join was made available after De Gaulle’s resignation in 1968. Looking at the situation half a century ago, De Gaulle’s position would easily make him the closest of friends to the Brexit camp. However, it took five years after De Gaulle’s departure to finally approve Britain’s application. A deal was signed in 1972 when Edward Heath’s Conservative government and President Georges Pompidou’s were in office, leading to Britain’s admittance to the EEC in January 1973.
Ever since then, Britain has done extremely well for itself and for Europe and the country’s position in the world has consolidated. With its uniquely significant position as a permanent member in the Security Council, London’s importance after joining Europe has increasingly grown and its foreign policy became a leading light for vast number of European countries. Its attitude has become central to so many discussions and the decision-making process with the EU and beyond.
Kingdom under threat
Now with the Brexit camp soon to be in the steering wheel of Britain’s politics, it is hard to predict how the country’s social structure will shape up and what direction its relations will take — either with its former European partners or across the Atlantic.
The Brexit vote has clearly caused the first jolt to the system in half a century. In fact, the question of the survival of the UK itself is on the table for the first time in Britain’s history, with Scotland openly discussing its place and future within the UK as well as the EU. How this will come about, we only need to wait for two or three years at the most to see what sort of a country the UK will become. Unfortunately, the referendum has already uncovered the ugly face of politics and, more seriously, the deep division of the country.
Only two years ago, Lord Hennessy signed with 199 public figures a letter published in the Guardian calling on Scottish politicians not to vote for independence in a specially arranged referendum by the Scottish National Party. The letter said: “The decision on whether to leave our shared country is, of course, absolutely yours alone ... We want to let you know how very much we value our bonds of citizenship with you ... What unites us is much greater that what divides us. Let’s stay together”.
There are also concerns over Ireland, both the Republic and the North. As a result of the Brexit vote there is a fear of a return to the old border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is an integral part of the EU and the Eurozone. The Irish government in Dublin has already expressed its concerns about the border, which it has listed among a number of priority issues to urgently look into once the UK completes its divorce from the EU.
On the other hand, Sinn Fein, the Republican movement, has called for a vote on the reunification of Ireland. Deputy First Minister of the devolved region of Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness has already called for a referendum to determine the region’s place after the Brexit vote.
Across the Atlantic, the United States would be in the forefront of the countries who will keep a close eye at events unfolding in Britain in the near future. The US, since the Marshall Plan to aid Western Europe after the Second World War with $12 billion (approximately $120 billion in current dollar value), has established what has become historically known as ‘Special Relations’ with UK. That relations have also helped to build an enduring bridge of trust between the US and Europe. Now, with the Brexit win in the referendum, American planners would look into fractured EU with great deal of suspicion as they see the main benefactor of such shake-up will be Russia, its foreign policy in Europe as well as in the Middle East.
Mustapha Karkouti is a former president of the Foreign Press Association, London.
