With only weeks before the June 23 ‘in-out’ European Union (EU) referendum, Britain held ‘Super Thursday’ ballots with landmark results. The welcome election in London of Labour’s Sadiq Khan, the first Muslim mayor of a capital city in the western world, grabbed the headlines, but underlying this is a bigger story about the fracturing of politics across England, Scotland and Wales, which could yet have a key bearing on the forthcoming referendum outcome.
For Labour’s victories in the Bristol and London mayoral elections, the latter in which Khan gained the biggest individual political mandate in British history, plus the party’s strong performance in the Welsh Assembly elections, was counterpoised by the robust showing of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the Scottish Parliament ballots to win a historic third team, plus the better-than-expected performance of the Conservatives in Scotland too. The results indicate that the once monolithic character of British politics is continuing to break down, yielding, potentially, significantly more unpredictable political landscape.
And the febrile mood of the electorate, where Euro-scepticism is a persistent undercurrent, serves as another warning to British Prime Minister David Cameron that pro-Brexit forces could win the EU referendum, setting off a political earthquake with potentially far-reaching political and economic consequences for Britain and beyond. One sign of the continued electoral potency of anti-Brussels sentiment were the gains in England and Wales by the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), which won its first ever seats in the Welsh National Assembly, its first seats in the London Assembly for a decade and also made gains in other English Council elections.
Ukip, a party built around withdrawal from the EU, is at the vanguard of the Brexit campaign, and its leader Nigel Farage claimed last Thursday’s results showed it was the third most significant force in UK politics behind the Conservatives and Labour. While this is dubious, Ukip is unquestionably a key influence: In 2015, for instance, it secured almost four million votes in the British Parliamentary elections, and in 2014 topped the European Parliament vote, thus becoming the first party other than the Conservatives or Labour to win a national British election in more than 100 years.
Ukip’s strength, and the growth of other so-called ‘third parties’ such as the SNP, reflects an ongoing flux whereby a previously stable two-party system is giving way to more unpredictability. For much of the post-war period, politics in England, Scotland and Wales has been dominated by the generally pro-EU Labour Party, and the Conservatives, which led Britain into joining the then-European Economic Community (the precursor to today’s EU) in 1973, but is now split on the question of remaining in the Brussels-based club.
Between 1945 and 1970, for instance, these two parties collectively won an average of over 90 per cent of the vote — and seats — in the eight British general elections held in that time. Yet, in the nine elections held between 1974 and 2005, that average fell significantly to below 75 per cent.
And that has brought about major political changes still unfolding to this day. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats have done most in recent decades to break the hold of the two major parties on power, but in recent years the party has suffered repeated electoral setbacks in England, Scotland and Wales, including on Super Thursday.
Several other parties have also come to higher prominence in recent years, including Ukip; the SNP, which governs the Scottish Parliament; and the Green Party who, on Super Thursday, overtook the Liberals as the fourth largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
And the rise of these third parties is helping drive the political agenda right across Britain, as Ukip demonstrates. Driven in part by the rise of Farage’s party and its appeal to potential Conservative voters, Cameron decided in 2013 that if he won a majority in the 2015 general election he would hold the forthcoming ‘in-out’ EU referendum to try to stem Ukip’s popularity.
While this may have appeared a tactical masterstroke to the prime minister, at the time, it could easily backfire on June 23, potentially forcing his resignation. Polls continue to show the vote on a knife edge, with a majority of Conservative voters favouring Brexit, and a majority of Labour voters backing ‘remain’, according to polls.
The result is ultimately likely to be shaped by the relative turnout between younger voters, who, surveys show, could be around two thirds in favour of ‘remain’, and older voters, who, polls suggest, may be around two thirds in favour of Brexit. Younger voters, who tend to be most concerned by the future economic impact of Brexit, are generally less likely to turnout to vote than older voters who are most motivated by issues of sovereignty and immigration in relation to the referendum.
Should overall turnout be lower than 60 per cent, the prospects of a Brexit vote significantly increase given the greater propensity of older people to vote. Conversely, if turnout is well above 60 per cent, prospects of the ‘remain’ campaign winning grow sizeably. Turnout at the last European referendum in 1975 was some 65 per cent, but at the last British-wide referendum in 2011 — to decide the future of the voting system for Westminster elections — just 41 per cent voted.
While a high turnout at the referendum is possible, this will depend upon raising the awareness and fervour of pro-EU voters, especially the young. The next few weeks are therefore likely to see intensification of the ‘remain’ campaign’s appeal to the young, including highlighting the economic risks of Brexit for jobs and investment.
Taken overall, Super Thursday’s results underline the continuing fracturing of British politics. The more unpredictable political landscape that is unfolding, with the prominence of third parties like Ukip, is only intensifying the uncertainties surrounding the EU referendum vote, whose eventual result will ultimately be decided by the strength of voter turnout.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Politics) at the London School of Economics.
