It is no longer a political bluff, nor is it an empty rhetoric. The stage is almost set for the inevitable war in the Gulf. The US navy is once again flexing its muscles by conducting naval manoeuvres off the Gulf coast this year. Britain has decided to send one of its aircraft carrier which is due in the region at the beginning of 2008.
The US President George W. Bush made an irresponsible remark last week about a third world war if Iran continues with its nuclear programme. The hawkish US Vice President Dick Cheney jumped on the warmongering wagon by accusing Iran of meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq and of aiding terrorist groups in their fight against the Americans in the war-torn country.
Even the Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani promised his Jewish audience that he would declare a war on Iran the moment he takes over as the president of the US.
The US Congress who could not see itself left out of the war rhetoric, voted overwhelmingly for a non-binding resolution on declaring Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation. Additionally, the latest public opinion survey shows that close to 50 per cent of Americans support a military strike against the Islamic republic if it pursues its nuclear programme.
The evidence is mounting by the day and is pointing in one direction - the fourth Gulf war is inevitable. A military showdown between the US and Iran is likely and it is only a matter of time.
A new military confrontation in the region which was only considered a 30 per cent possibility in 2006 has jumped to 70 per cent by end of 2007. It is becoming almost a 100 per cent certainty towards the end of Bush's term in 2008.
Iran is tentatively listening, observing and closely monitoring the looming threat of war. Yet Tehran is defiant. In Iran, American threats are not taken seriously any more.
Iran has rightly come to the conclusion that the US is militarily and politically exhausted due to its Iraq quagmire. It does not have a stomach for a new military adventure and it can't stop Iran from developing its nuclear programme.
Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made it amply clear that his country's nuclear programme is not negotiable and is irreversible. The world has to recognise Iran as a nuclear power and the US has to live with it as a fait accompli.
However, if the US attacks Iran, Tehran is apparently ready to respond in kind. Iran will make life more difficult for the Americans in Iraq. It will unleash its local and regional allies to play havoc throughout the Gulf and the Arab world.
Oil shipments
More significantly Tehran has already made it clear that it will do everything possible to block oil shipments through the strategic Straits of Hormuz, which is used to ship about 20 million barrels of oil, representing one-fifth of the world's consumption, every single day of the year. That constitutes a massive market disruption of unacceptable magnitude.
So please be my guest is the attitude in Tehran. Iran's threatening posture and Bush's belligerent stance could lead to the inevitable. It is a recipe for a looming disaster in the making.
If the war is inevitable what can the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states do? They are torn between the devil and the deep sea. Obviously they have no say on the course of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. The US listens to nobody, but itself and Israel.
The GCC states have absolutely no interest in seeing a neighbouring and Islamic country attacked by a foreign power. Yet if war is inevitable, it is also not the end of the world for the GCC states.
They have gone through three challenging wars and have seen some tough times over the past 30 years and still managed to survive. They are getting used to living in a dangerous zone. No matter how bad thing get this round, they will adapt and will come out just fine.
The GCC states know by now how to handle deadly challenges. Despite all the tensions and upheavals, the Gulf states are politically stable, ideologically moderate and economically the most prosperous in the Arab World.
Naturally, the GCC states are worried, but not necessarily desperate. Even if Iran is attacked by the US, there is no reason for Tehran to attack the GCC states. Even if Iran decides to disrupt oil shipments, and crude oil price reaches $200 a barrel, it would only benefit the GCC states.
While the dangers of a war are real, it is perhaps worthwhile to think positively before and during the conflict. More importantly, some serious thought should be given to the vast post-war political and economic opportunities.
- Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdullah is professor of political science at UAE University, Al Ain.
