With the Brexit verdict and President Donald Trump’s victory in American presidential elections of 2016, there are increasing fears that Big Data can help a political party steal an election. These fears may well be exaggerated, but it is undeniable that Big Data has revolutionised political campaigning.
The question is what does this do to the will of the people, which is the foundation of any liberal democracy? And imagine the implications for a diverse society like India, with faultlines that go back in time. It is alleged that in the recently-concluded elections in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), some of these campaign tactics were used. To those unfamiliar with Big Data and Cambridge Analytica, the company that created the strategy of innovative political campaigning using curated content, here is a short introduction.
Big Data, simply put, is our digital footprint; it is a trove of our online history, including how we navigate, shop, and search and behave online. It is a mine of information on how we interact with institutions and with each other and this is a huge source of data that has dire repercussions and opportunities. This online behaviour is used to build psychological profiles of users and the acronym Ocean — openness, conscientiousness, extroversion (sociability), agreeableness and neuroticism (degrees of sensitivity) — is used to define personality traits.
In short, the scores chalked up on Ocean can predict with great accuracy our religious affiliation, political preferences and so on. Indeed, this type of profiling can help evaluate a person more precisely than information gleaned from his friends, parents and life-partners. Every Facebook “like” by a user, is a small step towards a reliable prediction. It is almost Orwellian in its sweep, with Big Brother watching all of us.
This gets even more ominous when we research Cambridge Analytica and its founder, Alexander Nix. The original creator of these tools to measure personality traits was actually Dr Michal Kosinski, a psychologist and data scientist; Nix and Cambridge Analytica surreptitiously used Kosinski’s concepts to develop their model for political campaigning purposes. The full story, fascinating and incredulous is covered in ‘The data that turned the world upside down’ that appeared in the online magazine, Motherboard. Nix unsurprisingly disputes most of these assertions, but Kosinski says he is appalled by the misuse of digital footprints. Because for him, the internet was a gift from heaven and he was simply trying to do a payback.
Swing voters
Both the Guardian and the Indian media have extensively reported on the use of Big Data — Indian style of course, because the digital ecosystem is not so deeply rooted here — in the recent UP polls. Unlike in the West, databases at least in rural areas have to be created, and special operations were bootstrapped for collecting information on caste, age and religion. In fact, the Guardian says as many as 45,000 calls a day were made to profile voters. And equipped with this profiling, an array of personalised messages were sent out to engage each of the recipients.
Elections are won and lost on swing voters. A ‘swing vote’ is a vote that can potentially go to any among a number of candidates in an election; primarily they are fence-sitters and are in direct contrast to ‘lock votes’ who are solidly behind a partisan candidate. These concepts are perhaps more relevant to the US electioneering process, but even in India, the slogan — Cast your vote don’t vote for your caste — is slowly catching on. So we now have a growing pool of swing voters, which makes this sub-set very critical in elections. And well-tailored political messaging backed up with a solid ground game — an army of volunteers doing house calls — directed at these swing voters can change the election results.
The real game changer though for Big Data, at least in India, is to put out half-truths and then back them with personalised digital communication. Take for example, the rumour that the Muslim population may overtake the Hindu population in the not-too-distant future. This is toxic and unlikely to ever happen. But with a substantial number of Hindus who already feel that they are being discriminated against, these half-truths can make even the well-informed and tolerant Hindus dwell on these absurd assertions.
There is a clear and present danger here. The subversion of the will of the people of India is a distinct possibility. Some may say all of this is too dark and, frankly, implausible because Big Data, which is central to these outcomes, is nowhere close to getting its predictions right. Its track record is far from perfect.
Yet, it would be naive to think that Big Data would not be misused. We would do well to remember Thomas Jefferson’s famous words, “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”
Ravi Menon is a Dubai-based writer, working on a series of essays on India and on a public service initiative called India Talks.
