Critics of operation ‘Storm of Resolve’, which has entered its third week, fail to admit that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members were left with no choice and that resorting to force in Yemen was a last-ditch option.
If they had failed to intervene, the Saudi-led Arab coalition would have had to countenance the fact that the sinister alliance between the Al Houthi militias and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh would soon overrun all of Yemen. The air strikes are meant to stop these rebel forces in their tracks and pave the way for the return of the legitimate government, which had committed itself to finding a political solution to the crisis.
But what transpired in Yemen is much more than an internal conflict. The GCC countries were convinced that the rebels were receiving direct military aid from Iran, a country that is bent on interfering in the affairs of a number of Arab states. The geopolitical consequences of an Al Houthi takeover of the country would have been enormous. It would have allowed Iran to establish a foothold at the entrance of Bab Al Mandeb strait on the Red Sea, threatening the national security of Gulf states as well as Egypt and indeed the world. Those who are critical of foreign intervention in Yemen’s affairs should address Iran’s dalliance with the Al Houthis and the unseated Saleh. Both these parties had made efforts to derail the GCC’s initiative on Yemen. And both have reneged on commitments made under the national dialogue to pave the way for a reconciliation plan aimed at drafting a new constitution and allowing for fresh elections.
The critics also tend to forget that Yemen had a freely elected president and parliament and that the country’s institutions were intact and capable of moving on through a period of sensitive transition.
The Al Houthis were given ample time to put their ideas on the table for open discussion. But they refused to accept a compromise and chose to occupy the capital Sana’a in addition to other key northern cities and governorates and sidelined the legitimate president and members of his government.
And when President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi fled to Aden and tried to restore his government, the Al Houthi-Saleh alliance threatened to march to the south. Indeed forces loyal to both have reached Aden and committed atrocities against the city’s population who stood by the legitimate government.
The coalition’s air strikes have slowed the advance of the rebels, but have not stopped them. Clearly, the rebels want to spread chaos in Yemen in the hope of forcing the coalition into sending ground troops. So far they have refused to accept appeals to withdraw their forces from Sana’a and other cities and embrace the principle of dialogue to resolve the crisis.
The air strikes alone can’t deliver a solution considering Yemen’s plight. The GCC countries know this and have called on the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution calling on the rebels to withdraw and join political talks in Riyadh. GCC ministers continue to assert that such talks are open to all and that no one will be prevented from attending. Saudi Arabia and its allies know that the problem in Yemen will have to be resolved politically and peacefully.
Wrong signal
In the meantime, Iran is also calling for mediation to stop the air strikes and return to the negotiation table. But can Iran be trusted to convince its proxies in Yemen to do that? There is already a political path to a peaceful settlement but Tehran does not want to give credit to perceived enemies in the region. This sends the wrong signal to the GCC and other Arab countries. If Iran wants to normalise its relations with its GCC neighbours, it must start with Yemen.
On the other hand, the longer this conflict persists, the more it becomes a regional challenge. In the past few days, Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula was able to occupy the city of Mukkala, some say with the tacit backing of Saleh’s forces. Today Yemen faces a number of threats and the country could fragment into pieces with Al Qaida, the Al Houthis, Saleh’s forces and southern separatist militias controlling different parts.
For now the Arab coalition has no choice but to press ahead with its air strikes in the hope of weakening the rebels’ military threat and preventing them from overrunning new areas. But eventually the freakish alliance between the Al Houthis and Saleh will start to unravel. Both cannot count on Iran’s direct military support. In addition, Tehran’s efforts to end the air campaign will force it to push for a political solution. The question is when will this happen?
To waste time will mean that Yemen will be divided between various forces that will eventually fight each other. The prospect of civil war in Yemen is real and present. Tehran will have to stand down and force its proxies to end their military adventure and sit for talks. Until such time, the air campaign will continue because GCC countries will not allow Yemen to fall into Iran’s hands.
— Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
