Jordan is at war! This is the uncomfortable reality that most Jordanians are beginning to realise following last week’s terrorist attack against a military border point, which was providing humanitarian assistance to over 70,000 stranded refugees on the Syrian side of the border. The attackers used a car laden with explosives that broke through a sand barrier killing seven Jordanian army and security personnel and wounding 15. This was the second terrorist attack against a Jordanian target in two weeks. On the first day of Ramadan, an armed man attacked a security office near Al Baqaa refugee camp north of Amman, killing five before fleeing. He was later captured.
Although no group has claimed responsibility for Tuesday’s attack, the most likely culprit is Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levavt). Jordan is a member of the international coalition fighting the militant organisation and King Abdullah has been especially vociferous in condemning what he described as “outlaws”, calling on coalition members to intensify the fight against Daesh. Following Tuesday’s attack he renewed such calls vowing to respond with an iron fist against aggressors.
Since Daesh made spectacular territorial gains in Syria and Iraq, beginning of 2013, Jordan was the first Arab country to point to the geopolitical menace of this militant organisation. Jordanian security agencies were instrumental in locating and later liquidating the founder of Daesh, Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, back in 2006. He was a Jordanian citizen who broke away from Al Qaida to set up what was called then the Islamic State in Iraq, which was a precursor of Daesh. The killing of a Jordanian pilot early in 2015 by Daesh in Syria unified Jordanians as King Abdullah declared that his country was now at war with the terrorist group.
But unlike Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Egypt, Jordan was never targeted by Daesh — that is until now. As the militant group loses ground in Syria and Iraq, it is believed that it will seek to launch terrorist attacks against various targets, in the region and beyond, as way of underlining its presence and its ability to survive. While the threat of a direct attack through the border remains limited, what is more worrying to officials is home-grown terrorism. Reports speak of at least 1,500 Jordanians who have joined the ranks of Daesh and Al Qaida affiliate in Syria, Al Nusra Front. There are at least 5,000 active Salafist extremists in Jordan not to mention sympathisers and lone wolf agitators. A number of prominent spiritual leaders of the Salafist movement happen to be Jordanians. In fact Jordan’s association with Salafist extremism goes as far back as to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The most important ideological guru of Osama Bin Laden was Jordanian Abdullah Azzam.
Last March, Jordanian security agencies uncovered a pro-Daesh cell in the northern city of Irbid. All of its members were Jordanian citizens. The attacker on the first day of Ramadan was also a Jordanian. Most Salafist extremists in Jordan support Al Qaida proxy in Syria, Jabhat Al Nusra. A number of its Jordanian members made unveiled threats against Jordan and the monarchy.
In response to last week’s attack, the Jordanian authorities sealed off the borders with Iraq and Syria, declaring them closed military areas, and announced that they will no longer receive additional refugees from Syria. Although there are no links tying terrorist groups to Syrians in Jordan, who number more than 1.3 million, the government has used the recent attack to justify its decision to close its borders. But the decision is largely linked to economic rather than security reasons. Jordan has been complaining that international donors have failed to meet their obligations to provide aid to help the government meet its humanitarian tasks. Public opinion has largely welcomed the latest decision as many Jordanians blame refugees for the worsening economic conditions and high unemployment and poverty rates.
Jordan is unlikely to reverse its position on closing its borders. But that alone will not ease fears over the threat of terrorism. Jordan’s armed forces are known for their high capability in protecting the kingdom’s long borders with Syria and Iraq. The army has thwarted dozens of attempts by smugglers and would be terrorists to infiltrate the borders. It relies on advanced technology to monitor the borders and it is unlikely that last week’s incursion could happen again.
That leaves the threat of home-grown terrorism, which requires much more than effective security measures. Most Salafist extremists come from marginalised towns and cities such as Zerqa, Maan, Irbid and refugee camps where economic conditions are dire and unemployment among youth is higher than the national average. Government’s strategy to deal with extremism has been criticised for its vagueness and inability to set clear objectives or to create the means to achieve goals.
Jordan has been going through difficult economic conditions for almost a decade now. Its foreign debt has more than doubled and its state budget suffers from endemic deficit while the kingdom’s debt-to-GDP ratio is about 90 per cent. A recent study concluded that the 2016 budget “confirms that Jordan is increasingly dependent on public debt and foreign aid to prop up continued spending — especially on energy subsidies”. The government was forced recently to renegotiate a new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that will require it to abolish subsidies, raise taxes leading to further increases in the cost of goods and services. The deal has been widely criticised as it will add new financial burdens on most citizens.
There is definitely a strong link between the dire state of the economy, high unemployment and poverty rates, and extremism especially among youths. Since economic indicators will not improve in the near future, the fight against local extremism will not achieve its targets any time soon. And so Jordan’s war against home-grown extremism will go on for a long time to come.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
