My last column in Gulf News appropriately described the current dismal scene in our region. Entitled “Mayhem and chaos roil Arab World”, it went on to say that today we are living in a very perilous Middle East, where forces of change are giving way to mayhem, disorder, disappointment and dashed dreams and aspirations.
I concluded by pointing out: “The current dire situation in the Middle East won’t ease. The dynamics will continue to pull and push the region towards mayhem. Regional powers like Iran, Turkey and Israel will continue to influence events more than the fractured Arab world. This won’t change until the Arabs, notwithstanding the Egyptian president’s proposal of establishing a unified Arab military force to combat crises, come up with a viable deterrent Arab project to combat the regional non-Arab and international projects. That is, no doubt, a tall order indeed.” Since last month, things have spiralled out of control and changed the regional landscape.
Arab leaders have displayed a rare united front at the Arab Summit in Sharm Al Shaikh by establishing a Arab joint force to deter enemies, state and non-state actors alike, and protect the member states from aggression. The GCC states have showed much assertiveness by launching a bold air campaign against one of Iran’s proxies, the Al Houthis in Yemen.
Moreover, the Iran-P5+1 Comprehensive Framework Agreement, reached last week, over Iran’s nuclear programme which will be finalised by the end of June, mothballing Iran’s nuclear programme, in return for unknown incentives to Iran, has alarmed the GCC countries. There is fear it will end up elevating Iran’s status in the region as a major power, in a grand bargain giving Iran the upper hand to undermine and bully its foes, continue its shenanigans and meddle in affairs of Arab states from Iraq to Lebanon and from Syria to Yemen and the Gulf region.
To allay America’s GCC allies fears, US President Barack Obama has extended an invitation to the GCC leaders for a security summit at Camp David this Spring “to discuss ways to “further strengthen our security cooperation” and also phoned to all GCC leaders. The interim nuclear deal has created euphoria and legitimacy for the current Iranian regime and its people who received the negotiating team led by Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif as war heroes in Tehran. This for sure will embolden Iran even further.
If Iran has been able expand its influence through its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen even after being curtailed by sanctions, what would Iran do when sanctions are lifted and the wind blows behind Iran’s sails? These challenges and shifts in the regional order, with the Obama administration’s “strategic patience and leading from behind”, have propelled the GCC states to take up matters in their own hands. Today, the GCC states are showing this leadership role in many ways.
I have argued in symposiums, conferences and columns in both Arabic and English languages over the last few years, that there is a pivot towards the GCC states in the Arab political order. Today the Arab centre of gravity and leadership has shifted towards the GCC states led by Saudi Arabia.
The events unfolding over the last two weeks attest to that and validate my conclusion. Saudi Arabia surprised itself along with the pundits and experts on Arabian Gulf region by its bold and unprecedented move by assembling a powerful political and military coalition of the willing.
In a rare show of strength, the Arabs led by the GCC states and Egypt have undertaken an air campaign with five other Arab countries and Pakistan with the tacit support of the US, the international community and Turkey providing logistical and political support and standing behind “Operation Storm of Resolve” against the Iran-backed Al Houthi rebels in Yemen. This move took everyone by surprise, especially Iran, the Al Houthis, the former dictator of Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh, and perhaps the US, Nato, and Israel.
The undeclared objective of “Operation Storm of Resolve” is to contain and arrest Iran’s expansionist project and send a clarion signal that Iran’s shenanigans in the region won’t be tolerated! And GCC security and sphere of influence is a red line.
With the military campaign in its second week, it displays a Saudi-led GCC mature stance, which could lead in the future to GCC states less dependent on US protection and on outsourcing their security and defence needs.
Furthermore, the move of assembling a broad coalition stretching from Morocco along the Atlantic Ocean, to Pakistan in Asia, flanking Iran, sends a strong signal to Iran and its allies and proxies, that there is a determination to engage Iran and contain its expansionism and bring much resolve to the fore. This for sure will make the US and regional players take note of a bolder and assertive GCC, leading the Arab world in terms of both soft and hard power.
The GCC’s collective efforts, the Arab League show of unity and the formation of Joint Arab Military Force led by the GCC states and Egypt when compared with Iran setbacks in the Operation Storm of Resolve, Iran’s failure to deliver after taking over Tikrit from Daesh( Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) in Iraq and the defeat of Iranian backed Syrian Army in Idlib and other areas, have shattered the tough image of Iran in the region and created doubts among its proxies and the Americans on Iran’s capability to deliver.
The increased tension associated with the sectarian Sunni-Shiite schism, the Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Comprehensive Agreement, Palestine joining the International Criminal Court, the reelection of Netanyahu and the formation of a hardliner cabinet in Israel, are pushing the Middle East into a different dynamic.
The Washington Post summed up the current scene in the Middle East, “As Iranian officials celebrated the nuclear agreement, there was cautious hope in Saudi Arabia, internal dissent in Iran and open hostility in Israel.” This “could stir hope and fear of a new political order in the Middle East”.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. He is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Centre in George Washington University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji
