It has never been easy for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to live next to a hugely ambitious regional power like Iran. Iran is not necessarily viewed as an enemy by these relatively small states, but as a serious strategic challenge and a mighty difficult neighbour. This neighbour is likely to become even more difficult now that there is an internal dispute over the re-election of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for another four years.
The relationship between the GCC states and Iran, which has invariably been tense, deteriorated sharply during the first term of Ahmadinejad's presidency. His verbal threats and maverick behaviour made it almost impossible to trust Tehran and feel secure living in the same geographical 'neighbourhood'.
The last four years saw confidence dipping to a new low and political tensions rising to new heights across the Gulf. Now that Ahmadinejad's 'landslide' victory is in doubt, an outcome hailed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as "a divine blessing", it is highly unlikely that the relationship between the Gulf capitals and Tehran will improve much in the next four years. In a hastily arranged news conference, Ahmadinejad characteristically confirmed that he is not about to moderate his behaviour. In fact, he affirmed that the world would find him increasingly defiant.
More of the same confrontational policies are not good news for the region and for the Obama administration. Apparently, US President Barack Obama's message did not convince the majority of the Iranian people who went to the polls on June 9, almost two weeks after his Cairo speech. Instead, they overwhelmingly decided that continuity, and not change, is the name of the game in Iran. The Iranians are yet to buy in to the lofty promises of the 'grand bargain' and the policy of engagement emanating from Washington. Obama failed to win the hearts and minds of the sceptical leaders and people of Iran, except for a small yet dedicated minority, who have taken to the streets to fight their elected leader.
Ahmadinejad is not just going to make things difficult for the Obama administration - he also intends to keep the GCC states guessing about how to respond to Iran's palpable shift towards a more revolutionary posture. The problem is not Ahmadinejad per se - he will serve his four more years and then move on, but Iran will remain. This inherently difficult country is here to stay - like an inescapable part of the destiny of the GCC states.
Revolutionary Iran was a difficult enough problem. Now they have to live with nuclear Iran. Europe, for better or worse, is learning to accept this eventuality. Washington is still hesitant, but is willing to give up the fight if Iran stops short of producing a bomb and opens up to direct dialogue. This leaves the GCC states to accommodate the decisive shift in the balance of power in the region. Tehran is on the verge of being recognised by Washington and other Western capitals as the undisputed political power in the region.
This makes Iran even more threatening, dangerous and mysterious than before. The GCC states have to live with new strategic realities that feature Iran as fast moving towards the nuclear option, in a possible collision course with Israel. The combination of a war-ready Israel and a possibly nuclear-armed and Ahmadinejad-led Iran is certainly not very comforting. This is a recipe not just for regional tension, but regional disaster. The spectre of war looms large on the horizon in light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's re-emergence and Ahmadinejad's re-election.
A fourth Gulf War is increasingly likely, but it is not going to be an American war. Washington is clearly in no mood for any foolish military adventures. Obama wants to make up for 30 years of failed American policies towards Iran. No more threats and no more confrontation - it is time for serious dialogue.
But war is high on the list of priorities for Netanyahu's right-wing government. It has already given in to Washington's demand for a two-state solution in Palestine. In return, it wants the Obama administration to turn a blind eye when the time is ripe for a pre-emptive military strike against its deadly enemy, Iran. Some are already predicting this unilateral Israeli military strike will take place at the end of the year.
The GCC states must stay alert as this scenario unfolds. They need to accommodate Iran regardless of who is in power. If Iran achieves its nuclear goals, the GCC states will have no option but to live with the nasty ramifications. They accommodated the grandiose Shah during the turbulent 1970s. They weathered the earth-shaking events of the early days of Iran's revolution. Eventually they will find a way to respond to the new realities of the second term of the maverick Ahmadinejad.
Iran is a difficult neighbour, but it is a neighbour nonetheless. And so we must learn to live with Iran, which is only the breadth of the Arabian Gulf away.
Indeed, the divide is slowly closing. It is estimated that in two million years, the Gulf will disappear entirely. At least then there will be one less bone of contention, as the argument over whether the Gulf is Arabian or Persian will hopefully be laid to rest.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdullah is a professor of Political Science at Emirates University.
