An increase in casualties during separate offensives in Ukraine could lend credence to the principle that the ceasefire between Kiev and Moscow is in danger of fragmenting.
The foundations of the painstakingly worked out truce in February were unsteady from the start. It has been violated on numerous instances. The recent deaths of soldiers and civilians in Ukraine does not offer much hope for the future; fighting might break out on a larger scale.
It is all a question of which side blinks first — the pro-Moscow militants or Ukrainian government forces. Both sides are pointing fingers at each other but this will not foster a long-term and sustainable solution to the problem at hand. International observers are unable to do much, except tightening sanctions on Russia while the Ukrainian economy also goes into free fall.
There is speculation that fresh violence may break around May 9, when Russia and Ukraine are set to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. Should that happen, the significance of that day will not be lost on anyone.
With the US sending in experts to train Ukrainian troops, the move could also be seen as a potential fuse to spark off conflict. This is why the international community needs to exercise caution and tact whilst encouraging dialogue and negotiations across a broader spectrum. The scale of the fighting may have ebbed but there is a smouldering volatility that is just as dangerous.
