The crisis in Ukraine is reaching an economic tipping point, which would require Moscow and Kiev to seriously consider the positive impact that a permanent ceasefire could bring when negotiations begin on Tuesday. For the moment a fragile ceasefire is in place, but the conflict and the resultant sanctions have battered the economies of both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is convinced that the threat of offensives commencing cannot be discarded and he argues that Russian forces are assembling on the eastern border.
But the military question is not the only factor that needs to be scrutinised. Ukraine and Russia are suffering from economic blows that have been dealt as a result of the conflict. This component needs to be looked into and addressed. While economic manoeuvring will be necessary, there is no solution better than ensuring a permanent ceasefire and a return to dialogue, which should provide sustainable solutions for all parties involved.
Kiev is looking to plug the economic leaks by securing a write down on its foreign debt in an attempt to appease its creditors. The government has stunned parliament by announcing that it may have to pay a higher rate of interest on its remaining debt. These tactics will, however, provide only temporary succour.
Attention must also be trained on Russia at this point, ahead of the peace talks. The smallest miscalculation on part of the negotiators could result in failure and a return to the drawing board, which is why deliberations must be genuine, albeit carefully calibrated, and result oriented for the benefit of both warring parties. There cannot be a scenario where the West considers delivering arms to Ukraine and sanctions to Russia whose economy is largely based on energy imports. A holistic approach is needed to arrive at lasting solutions.
Providing Kiev with economic and military assistance, while trying to suppress Moscow will only raise the tempo of the conflict. It is a dangerous tactic. The time has come for Europe and the West to show some diplomatic maturity and ensure results.
