If Qatar does not retreat from its dangerous course in supporting organisations that back terror, it could open up a totally unnecessary reshaping of the region’s alliances, which could have dangerous and unforeseen consequences. The potential departure of Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would be a tragic waste, but also offer a dangerous opening for Iran with its malign interest in fomenting sectarian hatred across the region, and Turkey with its military base in Qatar giving it unnecessary and dangerous military depth in the region.
Qatar has been part of the GCC from its launch, and its leadership and people have been an integral part of the GCC’s steady growth. The GCC is not a tightly managed transnational body like the European Union, with which it is often and wrongly compared.
The GCC may not have succeeded in many of its economic initiatives to the extent that it hoped, but it is nonetheless a very effective group of like-minded nations that have frequently acted in concert for the greater good of themselves and the region.
Historically, it tended to follow the former giants of Arab politics in Iraq and Egypt, but with their collapse, the GCC became the bulwark of the region, standing up for the rule of law through inclusive nation states. The Abdullah Plan on Palestine, which became the Arab Peace Initiative, is an early example of the GCC giving the region a lead, and more recent examples include their participation in the international coalition against Daesh in Syria and Iraq, and the coalition in support of the legitimate government of Yemen.
Qatar has every opportunity to return to the GCC and become an active member once again. Its fellow GCC members have been in constant touch, and Kuwait has been leading the attempts to mediate. Around the world the campaign to get Qatar to change is growing in momentum. Governments are starting to take diplomatic action to remind Qatar that it needs to talk and find a way out of the current dangerous impasse.
Commercial organisations are starting to query if they need to do business in Qatar. Banks are stopping trading in the Qatari riyal. And thousands of individuals are walking away from working in Qatar. All this adds up, and while every element of action matters, the key is for the Qataris to make their own decision that they have been wrong.
