Since Monday, representatives of most of the world’s governments have been gathering in Paris to try and arrive at an umbrella agreement to restrict the conditions that allow for global warming. While the meeting is largely one of politics, mathematics also enters the frame, with the ultimate deal seeking to limit warming of the planet to just 2 degrees Celsius.
The central issue is that the representatives must try and strike a balance between developed nations and those still in the process of modernising their national economies. Yes, developed nations have reached that stage because of their historical use of burning fossil fuels like coal. That rapid industrialisation of largely western economies during the 19th and 20th centuries set in place the conditions whereby greenhouse gases were trapped within the atmosphere, allowing the planet to begin the process of warming up. And with developing nations such as India and China now reliant on coal to power their economic growth, they argue that they should be given the chance to continue to grow largely unfettered by the niceties of limits on carbon gases as demanded by nations who reached their developed status fuelled by coal. That was the sentiment expressed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the opening day of the conference, saying that poor nations had a right to burn carbon to grow their economies, underscoring one of the major obstacles to a universal deal to tame the warming of the planet. “Justice demands that, with what little carbon we can still safely burn, developing countries are allowed to grow,” he wrote in a column published in the Financial Times. “The lifestyles of a few must not crowd out opportunities for the many still on the first steps of the development ladder.”
On the surface, it seems that Modi and others have a point. There is a reality, however, that the crisis is at a point of no return and unless action is taken now, irreparable damage will be done. The way forward seems to be one of moderation — allowing the gradual phasing out of carbon fuels. No deal is perfect, but not having a deal isn’t a choice.
